Ethereum Options Show Less Bearishness Than Bitcoin Amid Upgrades

Options market data reveals a telling divergence in sentiment between the two crypto giants. According to Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, Ethereum’s 90-day skew sits at -1.7%, which is “noticeably more bullish” than Bitcoin’s -4%. A negative skew indicates a greater appetite for protective put options over bullish calls, reflecting overall caution. However, the depth of that bearishness is where they meaningfully split. “In other words, traders are more eager to buy insurance for Bitcoin than for Ethereum,” Dawson told Decrypt. This data point suggests derivatives traders are cautiously downgrading the probability of an Ethereum-specific downturn relative to Bitcoin.

The sentiment is echoed in shorter-term metrics. Thahbib Rahman, a research analyst at crypto research platform Block Scholes, noted that the put-call skew for short-dated Ethereum contracts briefly turned positive recently, marking the most bullish positioning since late October. Furthermore, Block Scholes’s proprietary Risk-Appetite Index for Ethereum appears to be bottoming, a historical precursor to sentiment turnarounds. Despite these signals of a tentative thaw, Rahman emphasized that derivatives traders are “still falling short of pricing in a complete ‘Santa rally’.”

Analysts link Ethereum’s firmer footing in options markets to several fundamental and macro factors. The recent activation of the Fusaka upgrade, which improves layer-2 network efficiency, is cited as a key technical catalyst. On the demand side, major treasury purchases by entities like BitMine have provided tangible buying pressure. These crypto-specific developments are set against a shifting macro backdrop where markets are pricing in a potential December Federal Reserve rate cut, fostering a more favorable environment for risk assets.

Rahman of Block Scholes drew a parallel to the market structure in May 2025, which preceded a significant rally. “Back then, the rally began on the back of a more positive macro environment, the Pectra upgrade was launched, and in the following weeks, Ethereum spot ETFs had their best run of inflows,” he said. Similar catalysts are in play now with the Fusaka upgrade and dovish Fed sentiment. However, Rahman identified a critical missing component: “a sustained wave of inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, which would be needed to fuel a more decisive bullish move.”

Despite the improved skew, the broader market sentiment remains tempered. Dawson from Derive cautioned that the current environment is “very far from the bullish sentiment we saw at the start of Q4.” This perspective is grounded in spot price performance. While Ethereum’s year-to-date decline of -3% slightly outperforms Bitcoin’s -6%, both assets have fallen sharply since October, with Ethereum down 19% and Bitcoin down 25%. The options data, therefore, underscores a market that is not expecting a major rally but is selectively reducing its hedge against an Ethereum collapse.

This professional caution in derivatives markets contrasts sharply with sentiment in retail prediction markets. On Myriad, a platform owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users give Bitcoin a 75% chance of reaching $100,000 before hitting $69,000. This is a notably more bullish outlook than the 49% chance they assign Ethereum hitting $4,000 before falling to $2,500. This disconnect highlights the differing risk assessments between retail speculators and institutional options traders, with the latter exhibiting more measured, albeit improving, sentiment toward Ethereum specifically.