Ethereum Faces Critical Support Test as ETF Outflows Mount

Ethereum’s price action has entered a critical phase, with the asset hovering near zones that analysts describe as make-or-break for its near-term trajectory. According to data referenced in the source, ETH is trading around $2,730, having recently slipped below the $2,710 level—a support that had held since December. Crypto analyst Ardi, cited in the report, labeled this area “very critical,” warning that a failure to hold here would likely see the price hunt for the next swing low at $2,620.

The technical outlook grows increasingly concerning if those levels fail. Ardi further identified the $2,450 zone, which acted as a strong base in mid-2025, as “the main line of defence” on a larger macro move down. The analyst’s stark assessment was that “below that gets extremely ugly,” pointing to a concerning lack of nearby support. This technical deterioration is reflected in the broader metrics: Ethereum is now 45% below its all-time high of $4,950, reached in August 2025, and has lost nearly 7% in value over the past week alone.

Other analysts echo this cautious stance. Ted pointed out that ETH has lost the $2,800 zone, shifting focus to the $2,500–$2,600 range as the next probable support area for any short-term bounce. The daily trading range between $2,700 and $2,940 underscores the current volatility and uncertainty surrounding these key levels.

Compounding the technical pressure is a clear and consistent withdrawal of institutional capital. Data presented in the source reveals a troubling trend for Ethereum spot ETFs, with three consecutive months of net outflows. January saw outflows exceeding $100 million, following a massive $617 million exit in December and nearly $1.5 billion in November. This series totals over $2.2 billion in net outflows, a signal that institutional interest has notably weakened.

This pattern of capital flight suggests a broader sentiment shift among larger investors. The consistent exit, as noted in the analysis, points to “reduced institutional interest,” removing a key pillar of support that many anticipated would follow ETF approvals. The trend has kept traders cautious, as the outflow data directly contradicts narratives of steady institutional adoption and instead aligns with the bearish price action.

Amid the prevailing negative sentiment, some analysts are identifying potential seeds for a reversal. While the immediate narrative focuses on critical support breaks, other technical observations offer a counterpoint. Analyst Bryant noted the emergence of a “triple bullish divergence” on Ethereum’s chart, a scenario where the price forms lower lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms higher lows. Bryant described this as “a much stronger signal for a reversal,” suggesting underlying momentum may be shifting even as price declines.

Longer-term perspectives are also being weighed. Analyst Kamran Asghar highlighted that ETH is testing a support trendline that has held since 2022, posing the question of whether this could represent a strategic “buy-the-dip” area for patient investors. Looking further ahead, analyst Sykodelic projected a much more optimistic long-term target of $10,000, characterizing it as a “reasonable minimum” should a full market recovery take hold.

These divergent views encapsulate the current market dichotomy. On one side, the immediate evidence—breaking support, ETF outflows, and a 45% drawdown from highs—paints a stark picture of a market under pressure. On the other, technical divergences and long-term chart structures provide a basis for arguments that the current weakness may be creating a value opportunity. The path forward for ETH in February 2026 likely hinges on which of these narratives gains dominance as price interacts with the identified critical levels at $2,710, $2,620, and ultimately $2,450.