Ethereum Faces $2,800 Test as Bitcoin OG Bets Big Amid Bearish Sentiment

While retail sentiment weakens and analysts debate the potential for a bear market stretching into 2026, data from Hyperdash and Lookonchain reveals a counter-narrative unfolding among seasoned market participants. The trader known as Bitcoin OG, recognized for his well-timed positioning during past market events, has significantly increased his exposure to Ethereum. According to the latest on-chain reports, he recently added another 12,406 ETH to his holdings, signaling a vote of confidence at current price levels despite the prevailing fear and uncertainty.

This is not a minor position. Lookonchain data shows the Bitcoin OG’s current portfolio is a study in concentrated conviction. He holds 203,341 ETH valued at approximately $577.5 million, alongside 1,000 BTC worth around $87 million and 250,000 SOL valued near $30.7 million. This level of allocation, maintained during ongoing market weakness, highlights a strategic willingness to endure significant volatility rather than adopt a defensive posture. It suggests a belief that current prices may offer asymmetric upside, even as the broader narrative turns negative.

However, this conviction has come at a steep cost. The wallet’s unrealized profits have evaporated from a peak exceeding $120 million to less than $30 million, representing a drawdown of more than $70 million. This dramatic swing serves as a potent reminder that even traders with a strong track record are not immune to the rapid shifts in a structurally fragile market. The Bitcoin OG’s positioning thus presents a paradox: a massive bet on recovery coexisting with severe, real-time financial pressure.

Ethereum’s price action on the weekly chart provides the context for this high-stakes environment. After a sharp rejection from the $4,800–$5,000 region, ETH has retraced decisively toward the critical $2,800–$2,900 support zone. The asset is now trading below the 50-week moving average and is hovering near the 100-week MA, a level that has historically acted as a major inflection point for medium-term trend direction. This failure to hold above short-term averages confirms that sellers have regained structural control in the near term.

From a broader perspective, Ethereum remains above its rising 200-week moving average, which continues to define the long-term bullish framework. However, the technical picture shows clear signs of strain. The widening gap between the faster and slower moving averages has begun to compress, signaling a market transition rather than a clear trend continuation. Furthermore, volume has expanded on down weeks, indicating that recent price declines are driven by active distribution, not passive consolidation.

The immediate focus for traders and analysts is the $2,800 area. A sustained hold above this level would suggest the correction is a controlled pullback within a larger range. Conversely, a decisive weekly close below it would expose ETH to a deeper retracement toward the $2,400–$2,500 region, where the 200-week MA and prior consolidation zones converge. For bullish momentum to be restored, Ethereum needs to decisively reclaim the 50-week moving average, an event that would help neutralize the current downside risk.

The current market phase is defined by a sharp contrast between prevailing sentiment and the observable behavior of certain large-scale participants. While fear, uncertainty, and bearish expectations dominate headlines and retail trader psychology, the actions of entities like the Bitcoin OG tell a different story. His continued accumulation and substantial holdings in Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana represent a form of strategic positioning that runs counter to the defensive stance adopted by many.

This divergence raises the central question facing the market: is this high-conviction bet an early, prescient positioning ahead of a recovery, or a high-risk gamble in a deteriorating environment? The answer likely hinges on Ethereum’s ability to defend its key technical levels. The actions of such traders, tracked via platforms like Hyperdash and Lookonchain, provide a crucial on-chain narrative that complements traditional technical analysis, offering a glimpse into the confidence—or concern—of market veterans.

Ultimately, Ethereum finds itself at a decisive crossroads, caught between long-term structural support and intense short-term selling pressure. The battle at $2,800 is more than a technical test; it is a contest between growing bearish narratives and the high-stakes, high-conviction bets of experienced players. The outcome will determine whether the current phase is a painful but temporary correction or the beginning of a more prolonged bear market, validating either the caution of the crowd or the conviction of the few.