Ethereum Could Hit $13,000 This Cycle, Analysts Predict

According to analysis from DeFi Report founder Michael Nadeau, Ethereum is currently trading at a level 92% above its long-term 200-week moving average, which currently sits at $2,400. This positioning relative to a key technical indicator provides the foundation for several bullish price scenarios. During the last bull market cycle in 2021, ETH peaked at just above $4,870 on November 10, trading an astonishing 492% over its long-term moving average. If history were to repeat with similar magnitude, ETH could potentially reach $13,000 this cycle.

Running various scenarios based on this moving technical indicator reveals multiple potential price targets. If ETH trades at just 200% above its 200-week moving average, it would reach $7,300. At 400% above the long-term moving average, the cryptocurrency would surge above $12,000, representing only 170% above current levels. The analysis provides a “base case” scenario where ETH trades 250% above its 200-week moving average, putting it at a cycle top of $8,500. This aligns with realized price reaching $3,000, which would put ETH at $8,700 assuming a ratio of 2.9.

A key difference from the 2021 cycle is the substantial institutional participation now entering the Ethereum ecosystem. As observed by popular trader Merlijn The Trader, Ethereum is repeating 2021 patterns where reclaiming previous all-time highs “triggered a +250% explosion.” He noted that ETH is testing the same level again with “same structure, same energy,” but with the crucial addition of ETFs and institutions in the mix. This institutional involvement represents a fundamental shift in market dynamics that could amplify the current cycle’s potential.

The institutional catalyst materialized earlier this week when Grayscale launched the first Ether staking ETF in the United States. Meanwhile, digital asset treasuries have accumulated 4.7% of Ethereum’s entire supply in just a few months, demonstrating significant institutional appetite. This substantial accumulation by corporate treasuries provides a strong underlying support level that wasn’t present during previous cycles, potentially reducing volatility and creating a more stable foundation for price appreciation.

Despite the overwhelmingly bullish projections, analysts universally caution that the path to five-figure Ether prices will be extremely volatile. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has predicted a super cycle leading to five-figure Ether prices, but emphasizes the rocky road ahead. Historical data supports this cautionary note: Ether plummeted 94% from its 2018 peak and surrendered 80% of its value in 2022 alone. Another sharp downturn during this cycle isn’t just possible—it’s probable given the asset’s historical volatility patterns.

Currently, Ether is still consolidating, trading within a range-bound channel that formed in early August. From an intraday high above $4,500 in late trading on Wednesday, the asset has dipped back toward $4,400 in early Asian trading on Thursday. With sideways trading now lasting two months, the asset appears coiled and ready for a breakout. All technical indicators suggest ETH will move into price discovery mode as the bull market is not over yet, though investors should brace for significant volatility along the journey.

The bullish case for Ethereum extends beyond simple moving average analysis. Michael Nadeau’s research also considers Ethereum’s market share relative to Bitcoin. If Ether reaches 35% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization (it is currently at 23.4%) and BTC reaches $150,000 this cycle, it would put ETH prices at approximately $8,600. This projection aligns closely with the $8,500 base case derived from moving average analysis, creating converging evidence from multiple analytical frameworks.

The current technical setup mirrors the 2021 cycle in striking ways, but with enhanced fundamentals. Ethereum has already gained more than 170% since its dip below $1,500 in April, demonstrating the explosive growth potential that analysts are counting on. With the combination of technical patterns repeating, institutional adoption through ETFs, and corporate treasury accumulation, the conditions appear ripe for significant price appreciation—provided investors can weather the inevitable volatility that characterizes cryptocurrency markets.