Introduction
Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating near $3,250 after a sharp rejection at the critical $3,350 resistance zone, a level that includes the 200-day moving average. Despite this setback, the asset remains above key support levels formed in November, preserving its medium-term uptrend. The next significant price move may depend on whether ETH can successfully hold above a recently broken descending trendline, with analysts divided on whether this sets the stage for a breakout or a deeper correction.
Key Points
- ETH rejected at $3,350 resistance, which includes the 200-day moving average.
- Analysts observe a similar 47% pullback pattern to mid-2024, which was followed by a strong rally.
- Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded modest inflows, reversing a prior outflow trend.
Technical Battle at Key Levels
Ethereum’s recent price action has been defined by a struggle at a major technical confluence. As noted by analyst Daan Crypto Trades, ETH was “rejected from its Daily 200MA/EMA and ~$3,350 horizontal level.” This dual resistance proved too strong for buyers, causing momentum to cool. However, the asset has not broken below the series of higher lows established since November, which keeps the broader upward structure from that period technically intact. The immediate support level is now seen at $3,000, with a successful hold there likely confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
Following a break above a descending trendline that had acted as resistance since October, ETH has pulled back to retest that same line as potential support. Analyst DonnieBTC observed that ETH is “retesting the trend line” and appears “ready for a new bounce.” If this retest holds, it could provide a foundation for a push toward the next significant resistance zone between $3,600 and $3,800. The current consolidation, therefore, represents a critical inflection point where the market decides between validating the recent breakout or succumbing to a deeper pullback.
Historical Patterns and Broader Market Context
Analysts are drawing parallels to past market behavior. A comparison from CryptoWZRD suggests ETH’s recent 47% pullback is nearly identical in both size and timing to a correction experienced in mid-2024. That earlier decline was followed by a substantial rally. A similar recovery now would echo the strong upward move seen in late 2024. However, CryptoWZRD also cautioned that ETH closed its daily candle indecisively and that the ETH/BTC trading pair showed weakness, stating that “further upside from ETHBTC is needed and will depend on a decline in Bitcoin Dominance.”
The broader macroeconomic environment also played a role in recent sentiment. Initial excitement following the latest Federal Reserve rate decision quickly faded as ETH’s price pulled back from the $3,350 resistance. This highlights how traditional financial catalysts can produce fleeting reactions in the crypto market when they conflict with stronger technical barriers. The interplay between Bitcoin’s market dominance and Ethereum’s relative strength remains a key factor for ETH’s ability to stage an independent rally.
On-Chain and Institutional Signals
Beneath the price charts, on-chain data and institutional flows offer mixed but cautiously optimistic signals. Data from CryptoQuant, highlighted by analyst Maartunn, shows that while “Net Taker Volume is still negative at –$138M,” this represents a significant improvement from October’s reading of –$500M. This metric, which measures the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers, suggests early signs of buyer activity returning, though the market is not yet in a state of overwhelming bullish demand.
Perhaps more notably, spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded modest inflows, reversing a prior trend of outflows that lasted for weeks. This data, reported by Glassnode, indicates that some institutional investors are beginning to position for potential strength as the year concludes. These inflows, while not yet massive, suggest a stabilization in demand and provide a fundamental counterweight to the short-term technical rejection. They represent a vote of confidence from a segment of the market that often takes a longer-term view.
📎 Related coverage from: cryptopotato.com
