Dogecoin’s Rounded Base Pattern Sparks Bullish Fractal Debate

Crypto analyst Cryptollica has ignited discussion with a TradingView analysis titled “DOGE: The Cycle Repeats (1W Timeframe).” The core thesis is one of pattern recognition, identifying four distinct “structural points” across Dogecoin’s longer-term history. The analyst argues the market is currently at “Point 4,” a phase that structurally rhymes with prior “pre-bull run accumulation phases.” Specifically, Cryptollica frames the current period, labeled Zone 4, as a near-mirror of Zone 2, which is described as “the launchpad for the massive 2021 parabolic run.” The analysis presents a “rounded bottom formation” where “the price is stabilizing, forming a heavy base just like it did before the previous explosions,” suggesting the current period is another “boredom phase” or “calm before the storm” where smart money may be accumulating.

This structural argument is bolstered by momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Cryptollica points to the weekly RSI hovering near the ~32 level, which they identify as a “historical floor.” The analyst notes that “every single time the weekly RSI touched or hovered near this baseline (Points 1, 2, and 3), it marked a macro bottom.” The current reset to this level is interpreted as a sign of seller exhaustion, with “the momentum… primed to flip.” Cryptollica insists this setup is not random but a “cyclical reset,” placing DOGE in what they term the “‘Golden Pocket’ for accumulation,” directly comparing it to the quiet loading period of 2020.

The analysis gained notable visibility when TradingView selected it as an “Editor’s Pick,” featuring it on their home page with a comment that “Good trading plans are valuable, regardless of their outcomes.” However, the thread also contained crucial skeptical commentary from user ZarinSyed, who provided a necessary balance to the deterministic fractal narrative. ZarinSyed acknowledged that “the fractal analysis is compelling” and the setup resembles prior accumulation phases, but immediately cautioned that “fractals are not deterministic.” This introduces a critical layer of nuance, emphasizing that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.

ZarinSyed laid out practical criteria for validating the bullish thesis, stating that confirmation would require “watching DOGE’s weekly close above the $0.15–$0.17 range.” Regarding the RSI argument, they conceded the ~32 level can signal exhaustion but argued that true “momentum confirmation often requires a sustained move above the midline (50). Until then, the risk of prolonged sideways action remains.” This shifts the discussion from pure pattern recognition to a requirement for concrete price action and momentum follow-through.

Perhaps the most significant counterpoint addresses a fundamental change in market structure. ZarinSyed notes, “Unlike 2020, DOGE now trades in a more mature market with ETF-driven institutional flows. Retail-driven fractals may play out differently.” This observation critically contextualizes the analysis, suggesting that the macro environment—particularly the influence of Bitcoin ETF flows on broader crypto liquidity—could alter the dynamics that made past DOGE cycles so explosive.

In plain terms, the debate distilled is between a high-conviction pattern thesis and a demand for proof. Cryptollica’s claim is that DOGE is back in a historical accumulation “buy zone,” evidenced by the rounded base and RSI at a historical floor. The bullish case rests on the assumption that the cycle will repeat as it has before, with the current structure acting as the launchpad for a new parabolic move.

The skeptical perspective, as articulated by ZarinSyed, does not dismiss the pattern but insists it must be proven. It argues traders should watch for a decisive weekly close above the $0.15–$0.17 resistance zone and a sustained RSI recovery above 50 for momentum confirmation. Furthermore, it implicitly advises monitoring DOGE’s performance relative to Bitcoin to discern whether any potential move is a unique DOGE story or merely part of a broader altcoin cycle. The core lesson is that while historical fractals provide a compelling narrative framework, they are not a prophecy. In a market now shaped by institutional ETF flows, the final verdict will be delivered not by the chart’s rhyme, but by price action itself.