Dogecoin’s November Outlook: Analyst Sees Seasonal Strength

According to crypto analyst VisionPulsed, Dogecoin’s potential November surge depends on a carefully orchestrated sequence of market movements. In his October 28 analysis, he outlined a hierarchical pathway where strength in the S&P 500 must first trigger a catch-up rally in the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which then enables an Ethereum breakout, ultimately creating the conditions for DOGE momentum. “If the S&P can push higher, then the Russell 2000 may actually follow… And as we’ve said 100 times, when the Russell breaks out, that increases the chance that Ethereum breaks out,” VisionPulsed explained, citing historical precedents from 2017 and 2020.

The analyst emphasized that this risk-on handoff from traditional equities to cryptocurrency represents a recurring pattern he’s observed in recent years. “November could be repeating itself where we get a big push in November,” he said, pointing to what he frames as a consistent pattern of late-October bottoms followed by November reversals in both 2022 and 2023. The current environment appears promising, with VisionPulsed noting ongoing equity optimism and observing that “the S&P is continuing to gap up,” creating historically favorable conditions for crypto beta plays like Dogecoin.

VisionPulsed’s technical analysis places Dogecoin within a rising channel pattern, with price currently “grinding upwards on the trend line” into early November. He anticipates this gradual ascent could accelerate toward the channel top by mid-month, provided the broader market conditions cooperate. The analyst characterizes the current moment as tactically bullish but emphasizes that the setup is constructive rather than guaranteed. “There’s probably no big bull run just yet, but it looks bullish from here to at least December,” he cautioned, highlighting the conditional nature of his outlook.

Timing plays a crucial role in VisionPulsed’s thesis. He expects a steady grind into early November, followed by a push toward DOGE’s channel top “probably in the middle of November,” with a decisive inflection point emerging as markets either confirm altseason into December or fail and reset. The analyst also maintains intellectual flexibility, acknowledging that “we always have to keep our open mind to the possibility that there is no altseason… I’m the last person that wants to say that… but we’ve got to be open to the possibilities.”

The analysis presents distinctly binary outcomes for Dogecoin, with the upper boundary of its trading channel serving as a critical decision point. In the upside scenario, if an altseason materializes and DOGE breaks beyond channel resistance, VisionPulsed floats the possibility of a run toward “80 cents, 90 cents, whatever,” though he cautions that such a surge into December could mark a local cycle top requiring real-time reassessment.

Conversely, the downside risk presents a sobering alternative. If momentum stalls at resistance without evidence of declining Bitcoin dominance—his shorthand for capital rotating into altcoins—VisionPulsed warns of a familiar whipsaw pattern: “If we come up to the top of the channel and we get stuck again… we’re going to see a crash to the bottom of the channel or at least the middle.” In this scenario, he cites a potential drawdown toward the “low-teens,” specifically mentioning that DOGE could “go back to 13 cents” from its current trading level of $0.19372.

Most critically, Bitcoin’s trend integrity serves as the ultimate gating condition across all scenarios. “If for whatever reason, Bitcoin breaks this moving average, then there’s no bull run at all. It doesn’t exist—we’re in a bear market,” VisionPulsed stated emphatically. He analogizes the dynamic to a “blue circle” bounce on the S&P and expects a comparable moving-average response from BTC to keep the crypto risk cycle intact. The message to Dogecoin traders remains conditional and sequence-driven: November offers the opening, but equities, Bitcoin trend support, and Ethereum confirmation must all click into place to transform an encouraging drift into a decisive breakout.