Dogecoin Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal, Analysts Eye $1.30

Analyst Cryptollica’s long-term monthly chart analysis provides a compelling case that Dogecoin is not in an overheated state. The key metric is the Mayer Multiple, which currently sits at 0.66005. This figure is derived from 200- and 50-period moving averages with a 2.4 threshold. Crucially, this reading is far below the spikes above 5 that accompanied the major blow-off tops in 2017 and 2021. This indicates that, from a valuation perspective, DOGE is not yet in the extreme conditions historically associated with major market peaks, leaving substantial room for growth before such concerns arise.

Further supporting the reset thesis is the ‘Dogecoin: Number of Days Spent at a Loss’ chart highlighted by Cryptollica. This on-chain metric tracks how long coins have been held at an unrealized loss. The data shows that the prolonged peaks above roughly 1,200–1,500 days, which characterized the cycle lows around 2014–2015 and the post-2021 unwind, have now compressed. The metric has returned toward the lower end of its historical scale, resembling the early reset phases that preceded previous major advances. This compression signals that the proportion of long-suffering holders has markedly declined, potentially reducing selling pressure from this cohort and setting the stage for a new cycle.

Complementing the long-term technical picture is a sharp rebound in shorter-term on-chain fundamentals. Analyst Ali Martinez, citing Glassnode data, reported that Dogecoin just saw 71,589 active addresses—the largest single-day spike since September. This surge in network activity, which occurred as the price recovered to approximately $0.1518 from a lower range, signals a broadening of participation beyond mere price speculation. It suggests renewed fundamental interest and utility within the DOGE ecosystem.

Perhaps more impactful is the recent behavior of large holders, or ‘whales.’ Ali Martinez shared a Santiment chart tracking addresses holding between 1,000,000 and 100,000,000 DOGE. The data reveals that these entities bought a net 480 million Dogecoin within a 48-hour period. This represents a decisive shift from a sustained distribution phase throughout October and November, where holdings in this band fell from around 35.6 billion to below 28 billion DOGE amid a price decline. The recent accumulation, which pushed holdings back to roughly 28.45 billion DOGE, confirms a renewed net buying phase among the market’s most influential participants, often a precursor to sustained upward momentum.

Despite the bullish indicators, the path upward is not without significant technical obstacles. Ali Martinez identified the $0.20 price level as the next key resistance for Dogecoin. A Glassnode ‘Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap’ clearly defines this hurdle, highlighting a dense cluster of supply between $0.20284609 and $0.20442947. Within this narrow band, approximately 11.72 billion DOGE were accumulated, meaning the on-chain cost basis for this massive volume of coins lies in that range.

This creates a clearly defined resistance zone. As the spot price approaches $0.20, this large volume of coins moves from an unrealized loss to breakeven, incentivizing holders to sell and recoup their initial investment. For Dogecoin to achieve the higher price targets discussed by analysts, the market must demonstrate sufficient demand to absorb this 11.72 billion DOGE supply wall. Successfully breaking through this level would be a strong technical signal, potentially unlocking further gains. At the time of the source data, DOGE was trading at $0.14451, indicating the key test at $0.20 remains ahead. The combination of reset metrics, active network growth, and whale support forms a solid on-chain basis, but sustained upward movement will depend on overcoming this major supply hurdle.