Dogecoin Primed for Late-Cycle Surge, Analyst Says

Cantonese Cat’s analysis hinges on a critical missing piece in the current crypto cycle: Dogecoin’s failure to break into all-time high territory. The analyst, in his October 19 market review, repeatedly emphasized that “we haven’t had Doge breaking the all-time high yet,” viewing this absence as a key reason to reject claims that the broader crypto cycle has concluded. He frames the relationship between Dogecoin and Bitcoin as a recurring feature of market dynamics, noting that “once you have Doge breaking [its] all-time high, generally that’s when the acceleration phase of Bitcoin begins.”

The analyst characterizes recent DOGE price action as a “wear-you-out phase” designed to exhaust market participants, punctuated by what he described as “last week… with a big giant wick”—a sharp deleveraging event that temporarily shook out weak hands without invalidating the longer-term structural setup. Despite Bitcoin grinding higher throughout much of 2024, Cantonese Cat observes that Dogecoin has “participated only marginally” while forming what he considers “a pretty decent base,” consistent with how earlier cycles have unfolded before rapid upside moves.

Cantonese Cat extends his Dogecoin thesis to broader market structure, particularly focusing on Bitcoin dominance patterns. He argues that Bitcoin dominance has run strong through “2022, 2023, 2024, almost the bulk of 2025” and now appears “a little bit tired,” having moved sideways for approximately a year. In his framework, a turn lower in Bitcoin dominance wouldn’t necessarily signal Bitcoin weakness but rather would imply significant outperformance by altcoins like Dogecoin.

The analyst explicitly rejects the “this time is different” narrative that has gained traction among some market participants. “If we end the cycle right here… this will be the very first time ever that we haven’t had any rotations from Bitcoin to altcoins and we haven’t had that parabolic phase,” he stated, adding that “I just don’t really think that the cycle is different from [the] previous [one]… because things are still playing out.” This perspective forms the foundation for his expectation that the characteristic Dogecoin surge remains ahead rather than behind the current market tape.

Cantonese Cat’s conviction stems from historical pattern recognition, noting that Dogecoin’s signature moves typically arrive after prolonged compression periods, often in dramatically condensed time windows. “Last time [it] only happened within like a couple months and next thing you know it’s just like whoa what happened,” he recalled, cautioning that DOGE’s acceleration can open quickly once key resistance levels give way. He views current widespread pessimism toward Dogecoin—”a lot of people are just extremely bitter about Doge because this cycle has been wearing everybody out”—as typical of pre-breakout conditions rather than evidence of structural failure.

While the analyst didn’t introduce fresh price targets in his October 19 analysis, he deferred to frameworks from earlier work that outlined several potential upside projections. Based on Elliott Wave structure after Dogecoin reclaimed the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.20088, he highlighted potential targets around $0.48 (1.0 extension), $0.89 (1.272), $1.23 (1.414), and $1.96 (1.618). In more speculative commentary from separate analysis, he has suggested outcomes exceeding $2.00 if breakout acceleration occurs, and in one instance laid out a case for DOGE reaching $4 this cycle.

Despite his constructive outlook, Cantonese Cat repeatedly stresses that he is not providing financial advice and acknowledges his call could prove wrong. However, he consistently returns to the same analytical fulcrum: until Dogecoin delivers the hallmark all-time high breakout that has characterized completed cycles—or definitively fails to do so—he treats the meme coin as “coiled rather than concluded,” suggesting that for traders positioning around late-cycle outcomes, the decisive Dogecoin moment likely remains ahead.