Dogecoin Plunges Below Key Supports as Market Weakness Deepens

The technical picture for Dogecoin has deteriorated significantly. The asset has broken below a bullish trend line on its hourly chart and now trades beneath the 100-hour simple moving average, a key dynamic support level. This breach has pushed DOGE through multiple Fibonacci retracement zones, with the price failing to regain a foothold above the 23.6% level of its latest swing move. Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: the MACD is strengthening in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 level.

Analysts note that immediate resistance now lies near the 50% retracement level of the recent decline. A sustained close above this threshold is viewed as essential to alleviating short-term downside pressure. However, repeated failures to break above these resistance areas have kept momentum decisively tilted toward sellers. The current structure, with DOGE locked beneath declining Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) between $0.154 and $0.202, is described as firmly bearish, increasing the likelihood of a retest of recent lows if broader market conditions do not stabilize.

Spot market activity reveals a troubling trend of distribution. Recent data shows a $5.7 million outflow from Dogecoin, extending a multi-month pattern of reduced accumulation by large holders, often referred to as ‘whales.’ The earlier inflows that supported rallies toward the $0.30 mark have given way to consistent selling, reflecting waning confidence among major market players. This persistent outflow is a fundamental weight on the asset’s price.

The strain is equally evident in derivatives markets. Open interest, which represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, has dropped by more than 9%. This contraction indicates traders are unwinding their positions rather than adding exposure during the decline—a sign of risk aversion. While long-short ratios show a mild bias toward bullish bets, price action has repeatedly invalidated these positions. Each attempt by DOGE to rise above short-term moving averages has triggered waves of long-side liquidations, creating a cycle of failed rallies that reinforces the downward pressure.

Institutional appetite for Dogecoin appears notably weak, as demonstrated by the disappointing launch of dedicated ETFs. Combined inflows from major issuers have barely surpassed $2 million, a figure far below market expectations and starkly weaker than the debut flows witnessed for Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) funds. This soft demand signals limited institutional interest in the memecoin, contributing directly to the prevailing negative sentiment and failing to provide any meaningful price support.

Meanwhile, a broader market rotation is compounding Dogecoin’s challenges. Capital appears to be shifting away from purely speculative meme assets like DOGE and toward utility-focused cryptocurrencies and payment-driven networks. Declining trading volume and low whale activity for Dogecoin suggest traders may be reallocating to projects demonstrating faster adoption and tangible real-world use cases. This thematic shift, alongside specific pressures on other major assets like XRP, which recently experienced violent leverage liquidations, underscores a market environment that is increasingly punishing assets perceived as lacking fundamental utility.