Dogecoin Nearing End of 5-Year Accumulation Phase: Analyst

According to Cantonese Cat’s October 28 technical analysis, Dogecoin has been forming what he describes as a “cup” or rounded bottom pattern for nearly five years. This extended accumulation phase, spanning approximately four and a half to five years, represents what the analyst calls “a big giant base” that has been building beneath DOGE’s price action. The pattern remains intact despite recent market volatility, with Cantonese Cat emphasizing that the rounded bottom is the defining structural characteristic of the current cycle for Dogecoin.

The analyst specifically addressed recent price movements that some traders might interpret as bearish signals. He framed the sharp drawdown that occurred two weeks prior to his analysis as “necessary positioning rather than a break in trend,” describing it as “a great deleveraging event” that represents healthy market dynamics. Cantonese Cat pointed to what he called “a big giant wick” and “a lot of demand down below” as evidence of resilient spot support through the base formation, suggesting that underlying buying interest remains strong despite surface-level price fluctuations.

Cantonese Cat’s analysis places significant emphasis on timing signals rather than specific price targets, with Ethereum serving as a primary indicator for Dogecoin’s future movements. He observed that Dogecoin typically follows Ethereum with a predictable delay once ETH clears its own major resistance bands. “Whenever we get closer to the end of the rounded bottom… that’s when Ethereum breaks out above the resistance zone and goes up a lot higher. Thus, Doge runs together with Ethereum,” the analyst explained in his video presentation.

The lag between Ethereum breakouts and Dogecoin follow-through appears to be a consistent feature in the analyst’s framework. Cantonese Cat estimated that “the lag is probably maybe a couple months between Ethereum breaking up and Doge finally breaking above this rounded bottom here and going up.” This relationship suggests that traders should monitor ETH’s performance as a leading indicator for when DOGE might begin its next significant upward move.

Beyond the Ethereum connection, Cantonese Cat also identified broader risk proxies as relevant timing indicators. He noted that DOGE moves have historically trailed small-cap-led risk cycles by several months, specifically mentioning the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as a reference point. In a follow-up post on X, the analyst added that “DOGE lags behind IWM all-time-high breakout by about 2 to 4 months before it takes off,” though he cautioned that the exact interval can vary between cycles.

One of the key arguments in Cantonese Cat’s analysis is that recent lower lows in Dogecoin’s price action do not invalidate the broader structural setup. He directly addressed concerns about the sequence of lower lows, arguing that similar patterns occurred in prior cycles just before outsized rallies. “A lot of people look at this, ‘that’s a lower low… the cycle is over.’ Well, it doesn’t work that way. That’s a lower low right there. Next thing you know, it just went a lot higher,” he stated, drawing parallels to current market conditions.

The analyst’s perspective challenges conventional technical analysis interpretations that might view consecutive lower lows as bearish signals. Instead, he characterizes these movements as part of the “healthy deleveraging” process that typically precedes significant upward moves. This interpretation aligns with his broader thesis that the multi-year rounded bottom pattern remains valid and that the recent volatility represents necessary market positioning rather than structural breakdown.

While Cantonese Cat declined to publish specific numeric price targets in his video analysis, he clarified his stance on headline predictions in a same-day post on X. “I realize that it’s stupid to call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when price is at 20 cents. If I was smart like others, I should just call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when it’s $2 or $4,” he wrote, indicating a preference for focusing on structural analysis and timing rather than speculative price targets. At the time of his analysis, DOGE traded at $0.20, with the analyst emphasizing that the magnitude of any future move would be determined by how far the broader risk cycle runs once momentum rotates toward Dogecoin.