Dogecoin in Perfect Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern

Crypto analyst Osemka (@Osemka8) has identified Dogecoin as being deep inside what he characterizes as a ‘perfect Wyckoff accumulation’ pattern. His analysis, based on both decade-long and daily timeframe charts, shows DOGE’s current price action tracking the classic schematic with remarkable precision. The pattern has progressed through Preliminary Support (PS), Selling Climax (SC), Automatic Rally (AR), and Secondary Test (ST) phases, culminating in what appears to be the terminal ‘Spring’ shakeout that often marks the end of Phase C in the Wyckoff methodology.

The current trading range between $0.18 and $0.22 represents what Osemka labels the ‘Test phase,’ where price compression typically exhausts both buyers and sellers before trend continuation. This phase is characterized by bids and offers probing for residual supply, with conspicuously high capitulation volume having already occurred during the Spring phase that briefly punctured the rising channel before snapping back. As Osemka noted via X, ‘DOGE coin follows OTHERS index almost 1:1. A perfect Wyckoff accumulation range. Test phase driving everyone nuts.’

Osemka’s long-horizon chart reveals Dogecoin’s history resolving into a sequence of rounded basing formations that preceded its two major vertical advances. The first arc matured from 2014 into 2017 before the initial markup phase, while the second spanned 2018 through 2020 and ended with the 2021 blow-off top. The current setup represents a third, broader arc that has been curving under price action from 2022 into 2025, visually rhyming with the two prior launch setups that culminated in rapid expansions once supply thinned out above range highs.

Despite DOGE currently trading below $0.20, the rounding contour remains intact, suggesting the potential for another significant move once the accumulation phase completes. The analyst’s charts identify clear resistance levels: a local supply zone between $0.26 and $0.28 aligns with the upper half of the channel, while the channel’s ceiling runs into the low-$0.30s near $0.32, where initial supply has repeatedly slowed advances in the past.

Osemka’s analysis ties Dogecoin’s micro-structure to broader macro conditions, noting that DOGE typically follows a predictable pattern during risk rotations. In his October 7 note, the analyst highlighted that market breadth improves first, followed by IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) breaking out, then alternative cryptocurrencies beginning to rise. Only when the OTHERS index clears its prior all-time high does Dogecoin tend to accelerate significantly. ‘Since DOGE is that coin that does nothing the entire cycle then rips faces off, it’s interesting to compare what happens after macro environment switches to Risk-on mode,’ Osemka explained.

The analyst maintains that Dogecoin’s current setup remains conditional on these broader market factors. His most recent exchanges with followers acknowledge that ‘one stab lower’ remains possible before markup, particularly with Bitcoin liquidity showing a few percent lower on his gauges. In Wyckoff terms, this would represent a final test or spring-within-the-spring, designed to validate demand at or just under the $0.18–$0.22 coil before a Sign of Strength (SOS) can assert above $0.32.

Within the broader memecoin and altcoin complex, context remains mixed. Osemka notes that PENGU has been outperforming DOGE on his relative charts ‘at the moment,’ even as he lists TAO, DOGE, and ONDO as the ‘best-looking setups’ for altcoins, with TAO characterized as ‘by far the strongest’ while ‘other alts’ screen as weak. This suggests rotation rather than dispersion across the cryptocurrency market, with DOGE’s constructive structure awaiting confirmation from both technical breakouts and broader risk-on conditions.

For traders mapping levels from Osemka’s analysis, the near-term battlegrounds are explicit. The test box at $0.18–$0.22 must maintain its series of higher lows to keep Phase D in play, while the local supply at $0.26–$0.28 represents the first meaningful resistance shelf that must be absorbed. The rising channel top near $0.32 marks the level where bulls would take control, with sustained acceptance above these bands needed to upgrade the structure from accumulation to markup phase.

Until these conditions are met, the ‘perfect Wyckoff trap’ characterization remains apt: the range continues testing patience and conviction while the intermarket checklist that has historically preceded DOGE’s impulsive legs awaits its final tick. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.194, positioned within the critical test phase that could determine whether history repeats for the third time.