Dogecoin Elliott Wave Analysis Signals Potential Third Wave Rally

According to trader and market commentator Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow), Dogecoin’s weekly chart structure appears to be setting up for a classic Elliott Wave ‘third wave’ advance. The analysis applies Elliott Wave theory, which proposes that markets trend in a five-wave impulse pattern where the third wave is typically the strongest by both breadth and momentum. Within this framework, DOGE has reportedly completed its ‘Wave 2’ pullback, with the correction terminating in the 0.382-0.618 retracement band of Wave 1 – a characteristic pattern in Elliott Wave analysis.

The chart shared by Cantonese Cat applies a Fibonacci grid to Dogecoin’s 2022-December 2024 advance, labeled as ‘Wave 1’ on the graphic. The analysis shows DOGE’s earlier cycle beginning with a lengthy basing period near the $0.05-$0.10 zone, with the 0.0 Fibonacci line sitting at approximately $0.04909. The mid-range Fibonacci levels are marked at 0.5 (~$0.15350) and 0.382 (~$0.11729), with the critical 0.618 retracement level anchored around $0.20088 on the weekly timeframe.

Cantonese Cat’s analysis emphasizes that Dogecoin is now reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which many systematic traders treat as a structural pivot point. The analyst initially thought DOGE’s Wave 2 had retraced to 0.5 of Wave 1, but noted that the price ‘decided to get to 0.382 which is also possible for a wave 2 retracement.’ The current weekly candle plotted on the image sits almost exactly on the 0.618 line, indicating the market is testing whether buyers can convert this level into support.

This Fibonacci confluence translates into specific risk frameworks for traders. As Cantonese Cat explained, ‘Now it’s reclaiming 0.618 and wave 3 could be starting… and wave 3 is the most bullish and most powerful of them all.’ The chart shows the recent decline labeled as ‘Wave 2,’ with wicks probing toward the 0.382 band and subsequent weekly closes gravitating back toward the 0.618 level. Sustained closes and acceptance above this golden-ratio band raise the probability that the prior impulse has resumed, while rejection could keep DOGE locked in a trading range.

Should the third wave advance materialize, Cantonese Cat’s chart visualizes significant upside potential through Fibonacci extensions. The projections drawn beyond the ‘Wave 1’ peak display the 1.0 band at roughly $0.48, with classical extensions at 1.272 (~$0.89), 1.414 (~$1.23), and 1.618 (~$1.96). Elliott Wave practitioners frequently monitor these zones for acceleration targets or distribution risk if a third wave unfolds, making them critical waypoints for traders watching DOGE’s momentum.

The validation of this setup depends on several technical factors beyond simply holding the $0.20088 pivot level. According to the analysis, price needs to demonstrate ‘impulsive breadth’ – characterized by rising range, expanding volume, and leadership versus cryptocurrency peers. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.20, putting it precisely at the critical testing zone. Whether this setup matures into the kind of third-wave advance Elliott theorists anticipate or fades back into consolidation will be determined by these broader market dynamics and technical confirmations in the coming weeks.