Crypto’s December Fate Hinges on Gov Shutdown, Fed

The crypto market faces an immediate binary trigger centered on the US government shutdown, according to macro analyst Alex Krüger’s widely followed roadmap. The analysis takes an unambiguous stance that market participants should maintain a “cautious stance until [the government shutdown is] resolved,” highlighting the current constraint on risk assets. However, the resolution itself presents a clear bullish catalyst, with the thread explicitly stating that Bitcoin could see “+5% or more within 48 hours of deal.”

This near-term hinge creates a straightforward risk-reward framework for crypto investors. A lingering shutdown would keep risk appetite pared back, while any deal opens the door to what Krüger characterizes as a “quick relief move” for digital assets. The timing window extends into the back half of November, with the base case estimating resolution “sometime between the end of next week and Thanksgiving.” This compressed timeline matters significantly because it precedes what the analysis identifies as a December calendar stacked with policy and flow headwinds.

The tactical implications are equally clear. Krüger proposes a specific trade expression around the shutdown endgame: “For BTC, I think you can probably sell a spike into the shutdown resolution around $108k-$109k (~20 DMA) then enjoy a king’s holiday and come back in by year end.” This suggests that while the immediate reaction to shutdown resolution may be positive, the subsequent December environment warrants caution.

December presents a complex convergence of challenges that could complicate any November rally. At the center sits the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 10, which the thread presently tags as “hawkish.” The analysis explains that “most Fed officials favor a pause as of now, which is not priced in at the moment,” creating potential for policy disappointment. However, Krüger acknowledges the fluid nature of this outlook, noting that “officials may change their stance on rates as economic data comes in and the month progresses.”

Compounding the FOMC uncertainty is an unprecedented data vacuum caused by the ongoing government shutdown. The roadmap notes it “omitted all upcoming economic data releases from the list due to uncertainty on release dates” and anticipates “likely see no official economic data in November, and data resuming in December, with payrolls (jobs) on Dec/5.” This extended blackout followed by compressed releases increases event risk around individual data points, particularly nonfarm payrolls, which serves as a crucial input for the FOMC decision.

Crypto faces additional pressure from seasonal tax dynamics. The thread characterizes “Tax loss selling (crypto only)” as “bearish; all December, mainly last two weeks,” reasoning that crypto’s relative underperformance versus equities this year leaves room for harvesting that is “of particular importance given relative stocks-crypto performance.” This creates a crypto-specific headwind that could pressure prices independently of broader risk asset movements.

Beyond the scheduled events, several wildcards could significantly impact crypto’s December trajectory. The Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs represents a major uncertainty, with timing “most likely sometime in December, otherwise January, timing fluid.” Market interpretation remains divided, with the analysis framing odds as pointing to a ruling “against Trump, which would be extremely bullish IMO, although some argue such a ruling would be bearish.” The key insight is the breadth of plausible paths—depending on the ruling and market positioning, crypto could either extend a policy-led risk-on move or face whipsaw volatility.

Another political appointment intersects with monetary policy considerations. The roadmap flags the “New Fed Chair nomination,” estimated to be announced before the next FOMC, which could “influence the FOMC decision (it could also be soon after); bullish to very bullish.” Even if timing slips to just after the December meeting, the signaling effect around leadership and policy reaction functions would, in this framework, skew supportive for risk assets.

Looking beyond 2025’s volatility, the roadmap sketches a decidedly constructive macro backdrop for 2026, stating “2026: very bullish first half of the year, driven by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.” This forward anchor matters for crypto investors because it underwrites the notion that any December drawdowns from tax effects or a hawkish-leaning FOMC could be transient if the policy impulse turns easier into 2026. The analysis suggests that while navigating December’s complexities requires careful positioning, the longer-term outlook remains favorable.