Crypto Whale Bets $748M on Rebound as Traders Brace for More Pain

According to on-chain trackers from Lookonchain, an anonymous high-net-worth holder, referred to as a ‘Bitcoin OG,’ has executed a series of trades that have captured the market’s attention. The whale first sold approximately $330 million worth of Ether before deploying nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars into leveraged long positions across three major cryptocurrencies. The total bet amounts to $748 million, with the single largest position being a $598 million leveraged long on Ethereum (ETH) opened at an entry price of $3,147. This position carries significant risk, with a liquidation trigger set below $2,143.

The whale’s other positions include bets on Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL), with reported entry prices near $87,883 for BTC and $124.43 for SOL. At the time these positions were opened, Ether was trading around $2,975, meaning the whale’s largest bet was placed slightly above the market price. However, the on-chain data indicates this bold move has not yet paid off, with the whale carrying close to $50 million in unrealized losses on these leveraged bets. This substantial paper loss underscores the immediate pressure on the position and the high-stakes nature of the gamble.

The whale’s aggressive long positioning presents a stark contrast to the activity of other large market participants. While reports indicate some whale addresses have been accumulating spot Ether—with one thread showing about $5 billion worth of Bitcoin moved into Ether holdings since August—data from analytics firm Nansen tells a more cautious story. According to Nansen, high-performing traders, often considered ‘smart money,’ have been reducing their bullish exposure.

In a telling move, these traders reduced their bullish Ether positions by $6.5 million in a single day and are now holding net short positions. Specifically, Nansen’s data shows this cohort holds $121 million in net short exposure on ETH, $192 million on BTC, and $74 million on SOL. This divergence creates a clear narrative split: while some large holders are buying spot assets, which can provide short-term price support, experienced traders with a track record of performance are positioning for further market weakness rather than a sustained upward move.

The backdrop for this clash of market titans is a fragile crypto environment. Bitcoin and Ethereum ended December without the widely anticipated year-end rally, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to thinning liquidity and declining risk appetite. Repeated attempts by Bitcoin to reclaim key technical resistance levels were unsuccessful, leading the quarter to close with negative performance. This stood in contrast to traditional safe havens like gold, which posted gains during the same period.

The absence of a rally as liquidity dried up raises critical questions about the market’s near-term direction. Analysts are now watching to see if Bitcoin can hold crucial support levels into the new year. The failure to mount a recovery in December suggests that a deeper market reset may be necessary before a sustained recovery can begin. This context of fragility and uncertainty makes the whale’s $748 million leveraged long bet even more consequential, as it is effectively a wager against the prevailing trend of caution and weakening momentum.