Crypto Predictors Doubt Santa Rally, Trump Pardon Odds

As the final stretch of 2025 approaches, crypto traders hoping for a festive surge are facing a cold dose of reality, according to prediction markets on Myriad. The platform’s “Santa rally” market, which opened on December 8 and closes on December 23, asks predictors whether at least three of four major cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), or Binance Coin (BNB)—will hit specific bullish price targets by December 25. The targets are $99,000 for BTC, $3,900 for ETH, $199 for SOL, and $999 for BNB.

As of the latest data, the consensus is overwhelmingly negative, with 96% of predictors betting against such a rally. This bearish sentiment has solidified over the past week, with the “no rally” odds jumping approximately 12% as the window for a pre-Christmas surge narrows. The skepticism is grounded in recent price performance: all four assets have declined over the past 30 days. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the relative outperformers, have still dropped 8.5% and 11.4%, respectively. Solana and Binance Coin have fared worse, falling 16.2% and 11.8%. These declines have pushed each asset at least 13% below their respective rally targets, making a sudden, coordinated surge before the holiday appear highly improbable to the market’s participants.

In a separate political prediction market, Myriad traders are expressing significant doubt that President Donald Trump will pardon Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez by February 2026. Rodriguez was sentenced to five years in prison in November for his role in creating a Bitcoin mixer application. Despite President Trump telling Decrypt this week that he would “look at” a potential pardon, and support from key advocacy groups, the market odds stand firmly against a pardon.

As of Thursday, predictors assign only a 20% probability that Rodriguez will be pardoned by the February deadline, with the market set to close on January 29, 2026. This pessimism persists even though Trump has previously pardoned other high-profile crypto-connected individuals like Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht and Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao. Rodriguez himself underscored the disparity in influence, telling Decrypt, “We don’t have billions of dollars. We don’t have the same type of influence people like that have.” The case remains controversial, particularly among privacy advocates and developers who view it as a threat to building privacy-focused blockchain tools, but the prediction market suggests these factors are not enough to sway the odds.

Contrasting the financial and political gloom, a popular entertainment market on Myriad reflects a more confident and optimistic outlook. Predictors are wagering on whether Steve Harrington, the beloved character from the hit series “Stranger Things,” will die in the show’s fifth and final season. The market, which opened on November 11 and closes on December 25, shows strong belief in the character’s survival.

As of Thursday afternoon, the odds of Steve Harrington dying are just 17%, meaning there is an 83% chance predictors believe he will make it through alive. This represents a significant shift, with his perceived mortality dropping about 14% from the previous week, likely influenced by the events of the first batch of released episodes. While fan theories abound online, and some creators’ actions have sparked speculation, the market’s resolution rules are strict: it will only resolve “yes” if there is clear, on-screen evidence of his death. Ambiguous outcomes like disappearance or an off-screen fate will result in a “no” resolution, a rule that may be bolstering the current confident odds in his survival as the finale approaches on New Year’s Eve.