Crypto Prediction Markets Turn Bearish Amid Bitcoin, Ethereum Slump

The prediction market platform Myriad, a product of Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, reveals a dramatic shift in sentiment toward Bitcoin. As BTC plunged below $69,000, concluding a previous market, a new one opened asking whether the next major move would be a ‘pump’ to $84,000 or a ‘dump’ to $55,000. Early trading shows predictors overwhelmingly siding with the bears, assigning 68% odds to a drop toward the $55,000 level. This target is significant as it aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a key technical level that analysts view as a potential support zone given the asset’s current structural weakness.

The bearish conviction follows a brutal week for the flagship cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% in the last seven days and is down nearly 48% from its October all-time high of $126,080. This decline has pushed BTC to a 15-month low, erasing all gains made since crypto-friendly President Donald Trump took office. With Bitcoin recently trading around $65,207, it would need to rally 29% to hit the $84,000 ‘pump’ target or fall 16% to reach the $55,000 ‘dump’ target favored by the majority of market participants.

Analysts point to a lack of clear near-term catalysts for a recovery. However, the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March is highlighted as a potential turning point. A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates could provide relief to risk assets like Bitcoin, offering a glimmer of hope in an otherwise pessimistic landscape.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is facing similar bearish pressure on Myriad’s prediction markets. A market asking whether ETH will pump to $3,000 or dump to $1,500 shows 71% of predictors betting on the downside scenario as of Thursday afternoon. This represents a 15% swing toward the bearish side in just one week, mirroring the asset’s precipitous decline. Ethereum has fallen nearly 31% over the past week, breaking below $2,000 for the first time since May 2025 and recently trading at $1,919.

The bearish outlook is supported by several on-chain and market flow factors. While BitMine Immersion Technologies continues to buy ETH—with its chairman Tom Lee maintaining ambitious price predictions—the firm is reportedly sitting on approximately $8 billion in unrealized losses. Concurrently, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has been selling ETH, though he has stated the proceeds are to fund the Ethereum Foundation and support a ‘new path’ for layer-2 scaling solutions, as well as his charity, Kanro.

Perhaps more telling is the capital flight from traditional investment vehicles. According to data from CoinGlass, Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $2.5 billion in outflows over the last 30 days. This institutional retreat occurs despite ongoing narratives around tokenization, which many institutional leaders see as a key trend for the Ethereum network. To conclude the ‘dump’ scenario on Myriad, ETH would need to fall another 22% to $1,500, whereas a 56% rally would be required to hit the $3,000 ‘pump’ target. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s next potential catalyst is seen as the March FOMC meeting and the possibility of a rate cut.

Amid the crypto market gloom, Myriad offers a lighter diversion with a market centered on Super Bowl LX, where the Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots. Predictors on the platform are putting their football knowledge to the test, currently giving the Seahawks a 69% chance of victory. This equates to American sportsbook odds of -222 and represents a slight edge over major bookmaker DraftKings, which offers odds of -230 (approximately a 70% implied probability).

The American Gaming Association estimates over $1.75 billion will be wagered on the game’s outcome and various prop bets this year. The Myriad market, with a volume of $3.94K, reflects this widespread interest. The matchup is a rematch of the 2015 Super Bowl, which ended in a dramatic 28-24 victory for the Patriots after a game-saving interception in the final seconds. Myriad’s predictors are now betting that the Seahawks will claim revenge this Sunday, offering a stark contrast to the prevailing pessimism in the platform’s crypto markets.