Crypto Nears Mainstream Adoption, 4-Year Cycles May End

Simon Dedic frames his analysis using the classic technology adoption curve, a model that segments any market’s users into innovators (2.5%), early adopters (13.5%), an early majority (34%), late majority (34%), and laggards (16%). The critical juncture, or ‘chasm,’ lies between the early adopters and the early majority. Dedic explains that early adopters are ‘people who want newest things’ and accept a minimum feature set, while the early majority demands a ‘whole product solution’—complete, convenient, and reliable offerings. According to his base-case scenario, with a 75% assigned probability, the crypto industry is now close to exiting this chasm and entering the early-majority phase next year.

This transition represents more than just incremental growth; it signifies a fundamental maturation of the market. Dedic states that if this crossing is successful, ‘the classic 4-year cycles are dead.’ The market would evolve from being driven by self-contained, self-fulfilling narratives—such as Bitcoin halvings or the concept of ‘altseason’—to one whose pricing increasingly correlates with broader macro cycles and the industry’s own fundamentals. In essence, crypto would begin to behave more like a traditional, albeit novel, financial sector, with its value tied to its real economic role and interaction with global financial conditions.

While Dedic’s primary outlook is bullish, his analysis includes contingency scenarios. He assigns a 20% probability to a path where adoption progresses more slowly. In this case, the industry is ‘still in the early-adopter phase and only now beginning to cross the chasm.’ This slower trajectory could precipitate ‘a 1-3 year bear market while the industry finds itself and pushes toward early-majority adoption.’ Under this scenario, the established four-year cycle pattern—characterized by prolonged bull runs followed by extended downturns—could remain intact until mainstream product-market fit is fully achieved.

The remaining 5% of probability is reserved for a failure scenario Dedic views as unlikely but critical to acknowledge. This is a future where the sector ‘gets stuck in the chasm and never find[s] true mainstream pmf [product-market fit].’ In this outcome, Dedic warns that crypto could ‘turn into a zero sum game and we will just PvP trade money from one to the other,’ failing to realize its potential as a transformative technology and devolving into a purely speculative arena. He is clear, however, that he considers this a remote possibility given the current trajectory.

Dedic’s conviction in the base-case, high-probability scenario is bolstered by several concrete factors. He cites ‘regulatory tailwinds, institutional adoption, and the accelerating fundamentals of our industry’ as primary reasons to believe the market is already positioned for the leap. These elements, he argues, have the crypto industry ‘standing right in front of the biggest adoption wave crypto has ever seen, and likely ever will see.’ This wave would be characterized by the entry of the pragmatic early majority, whose demands for robustness and utility will reshape the landscape.

This evolution necessitates a parallel shift in market structure and culture. Dedic asserts that ‘The 4 year cycles and simple narrative chasing are dead,’ and the industry must mature accordingly. While acknowledging that ‘the onchain online casino will always be part of our identity,’ he predicts it will ‘shrink into a niche.’ The future, in his view, belongs to those building and investing in serious, foundational applications. ‘It’s time for the industry to mature and start playing the serious game,’ Dedic concludes, framing this not as a theoretical exercise but as a practical imperative. His personal stake mirrors his professional outlook: ‘An incredible decade lies ahead for those willing to evolve,’ he states, adding that he is ‘betting basically all my money on the idea that this is only just getting started.’ At the time of his analysis, the total crypto market capitalization stood at $3.15 trillion, a figure poised for revaluation under this new paradigm.