Introduction
The cryptocurrency market concluded 2025 not with a bang, but a whimper, as a pronounced holiday lull froze trading activity and dashed hopes for a year-end rally. Bitcoin and major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin experienced their weakest two-week trading stretch in a year, with spot prices remaining range-bound and volatility vanishing. Despite this broad slowdown, a notable divergence emerged: while spot markets languished, Solana ETFs attracted significant institutional inflows, hinting at selective investor confidence amidst the pervasive bearish sentiment.
Key Points
- Solana ETFs attracted $11.05 million in net inflows over seven days despite SOL's spot price remaining unchanged for a month.
- Altcoin trading volumes have dropped to less than half of their 2024 levels, with Cardano falling 8% and Dogecoin declining nearly 10% monthly.
- Analysts note that altcoin dominance at 12-13% historically signals the start of strong altcoin runs, with current levels resembling those before major rallies in 2017 and 2020.
The Great Holiday Freeze: Volatility and Volume Evaporate
According to analytics firm Santiment, crypto trading activity slowed sharply in the final weeks of 2025, marking a stark contrast to the more engaged environment of late 2024. At that time, assets like Ethereum, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) still demonstrated strong engagement. However, the current landscape is markedly weaker, with these major altcoins now recording less than half of their previous weekly trading volumes. This dramatic drop in activity, coupled with a lack of major volatility catalysts, has left prices trapped in narrow ranges, failing to ignite the aggressive buying often seen in year-end rallies.
The price action reflects this stagnation. SOL remained virtually unchanged over the past month, trading at $126. ADA fared worse, losing 8% as it fell from $0.417 to $0.349. The original meme coin, DOGE, declined by nearly 10% monthly, trading near $0.122. Technical analysts point to concerning patterns for DOGE, such as a death cross and head-and-shoulders formation, which depict potential further declines toward $0.08. This technical weakness is compounded by declining futures open interest, adding layers to the prevailing bearish sentiment across the altcoin market.
A Divergence in Demand: Spot Stagnation vs. Institutional Inflows
Amidst the widespread signs of weakness, one area showed a glimmer of positive momentum: Solana-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data from Lookonchain revealed a significant one-day net increase of 36,533 SOL (worth $4.6 million) into these funds. Over a seven-day period, the net gain stood at 87,667 SOL, approximately $11.05 million. This consistent inflow is a crucial data point, indicating that institutional investor appetite for crypto exposure remains intact, even as retail trading activity and spot prices for SOL itself show no upward movement.
This divergence creates a nuanced picture of the current crypto winter. While the broader market, particularly retail-focused altcoins like Cardano and Dogecoin, suffers from a clear lack of momentum and interest, sophisticated capital is still finding avenues for deployment. The Solana ETF inflows suggest institutions may be positioning for a future recovery or are expressing a specific preference for Solana’s ecosystem over other altcoins, even as they largely avoid aggressive buying in the spot market.
The Elusive Altseason: Hopes Pinned on 2026
The quiet close to 2025 cemented a disappointing reality for many investors: a true ‘altcoin season’ never materialized. Despite occasional spikes in individual coins, the altcoin market as a whole lacked the synchronized, explosive momentum witnessed in previous bull cycles. Many major assets struggled to gain meaningful traction against Bitcoin, dashing the hopes of market watchers who anticipated a 2025 breakout.
However, some analysts, like ‘Rekt Fencer,’ believe the groundwork is being laid for a major shift in 2026. Their analysis hinges on altcoin dominance—the combined market share of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin. The analyst notes that the dominance of ‘Others’ is currently sitting at levels reminiscent of those seen just before major alt rallies in 2017 and 2020, suggesting altcoins are near a macro bottom against BTC. Historically, a dominance range of 12-13% has signaled the start of a strong altcoin run, while surges to 18-20% have coincided with the largest alt seasons. This technical setup provides a glimmer of hope that the current stagnation and low volumes may be a period of accumulation preceding a broader market move.
📎 Related coverage from: cryptopotato.com
