Citi Projects Bitcoin at $143K, Fundstrat Warns of Correction

Citigroup’s latest analysis presents a wide but structured price range for Bitcoin over the coming year, anchored by a core thesis: the transformative role of regulated investment vehicles. The bank’s base-case target of $143,000 is predicated on expectations of growing participation in spot Bitcoin ETFs and clearer regulatory frameworks, which analysts believe lower barriers for institutional capital. This scenario captures the prevailing optimism that these funds provide a secure, compliant on-ramp for large-scale investors, directly addressing previous custody concerns.

Extending this logic, Citi’s optimistic scenario projects a climb to $189,000, contingent on a significant acceleration in ETF inflows and favorable regulatory developments. However, the analysis is not uniformly bullish. The bank also outlines a bearish framework where Bitcoin could slide to $78,500, acknowledging that downside risks—potentially including stalled ETF flows or adverse regulatory shifts—could derail positive momentum. These projections are particularly notable given Bitcoin’s reported struggle near the $90,000 level at the time of the outlook, suggesting Citi sees a potential for substantial movement in either direction based on these key catalysts.

While Citigroup maps out a path to new highs, a more cautious internal view is circulating at Fundstrat Global Advisors. According to an internal client note from Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, the firm warns of a possible significant correction in the first half of 2026. The analysis projects Bitcoin could retreat to a range of $60,000 to $65,000, which would represent an approximate 30% decline from its reported price near $90,000.

This bearish internal stance is attributed to looming macroeconomic pressures and tightening financial conditions that are expected to weigh on risk assets broadly. The report extends this cautious outlook to other major cryptocurrencies, projecting Ethereum could fall to $1,800-$2,000 and Solana into a $50-$75 range. This internal framework stands in direct contradiction to the publicly bullish long-term stance maintained by Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who has consistently forecast new all-time highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, highlighting a significant divergence between the firm’s private client communications and its public-facing commentary.

The conflicting analyses from Citigroup and Fundstrat underscore the profound uncertainty characterizing the current institutional cryptocurrency landscape. On one side, the bullish case, as exemplified by Citi’s upper targets, hinges on the successful maturation of the market through products like spot Bitcoin ETFs and supportive regulation. This narrative views cryptocurrency as an asset class increasingly integrated into traditional finance, capable of attracting sustained institutional demand.

Conversely, the bearish warnings, reflected in both Citi’s lower bound and Fundstrat’s internal note, emphasize cryptocurrency’s enduring sensitivity to broader macroeconomic forces. The prospect of tightening financial conditions presents a clear headwind, potentially triggering outflows from speculative assets. This divergence creates a complex decision-making environment for investors, who must weigh the potential for explosive growth driven by structural adoption against the risk of a sharp, macro-driven downturn. The coming months will test which of these narratives—transformational institutional integration or vulnerability to traditional risk-off cycles—proves more accurate in shaping Bitcoin’s price action.