Cathie Wood: Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Disrupted, Bullish for 2026

Cathie Wood directly addressed investor anxieties stemming from Bitcoin’s recent performance, which has seen a retracement of over 10% in the past month. This pullback, part of a more than 30% drop from October 2025 highs, has fueled fears that the crypto market is entering the bearish phase of its notorious four-year cycle. Historically, this pattern has seen Bitcoin suffer corrections of 75% to 90% during bear markets, with 2026 widely anticipated to be a corrective year.

However, Wood presented a decisive counter-narrative. “We think that the four-year cycle is going to be disrupted,” she stated. Her thesis hinges on two key observations: a significant diminishment in Bitcoin’s volatility in recent years and, more critically, the accelerating entry of large-scale institutional investors. “The move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline,” Wood affirmed, suggesting the market may have already seen its worst for this phase. She pointed to Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $80,000 support level during a late November correction as potential evidence of this new institutional floor.

Wood emphasized that this institutional wave is in its infancy. “Institutions really have just dipped their toes into this space. We have just started, so we have a long way to go,” she noted, framing this adoption as a powerful, long-term value driver that will increasingly decouple Bitcoin from its historical cyclical patterns.

Beyond cycle analysis, Wood reaffirmed a bold comparative forecast: Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026. This prediction comes despite Bitcoin’s choppy performance in the last quarter of 2025, which she characterized as the cryptocurrency “climbing another wall of worry.” In contrast, she highlighted gold’s 60% year-to-date rise as proof it is functioning as a classic “risk-off” asset, with investors using it as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil.

Wood drew a historical parallel to support her outlook. She noted that between the early 1980s and late 1990s, gold peaked and declined during what she termed “the golden age of innovation” that culminated with the internet. She now posits that a similar dynamic is unfolding. “The AI age” is beginning, and as it accelerates, she believes capital will flow away from defensive havens like gold and toward innovative, risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

“I really believe we are moving from a rolling recession where we’ve been for the last three years, into a rolling recovery, which we think we are entering now,” Wood explained. This sets the stage, in her view, for a broader macroeconomic shift that favors Bitcoin’s profile.

Cathie Wood’s bullish stance on Bitcoin is inextricably linked to her overarching macroeconomic forecast for the United States. She believes the nation is on the cusp of a transformative economic phase. The “rolling recovery” she anticipates is expected to evolve into something far more significant.

“Then, a productivity-driven boom the likes of which we have never seen before,” Wood concluded. This “historic productivity surge” is central to her investment thesis. She attributes this coming boom to the proliferating applications of artificial intelligence across all sectors of the economy. In such an environment—an “AI age” defined by rapid technological advancement and growth—Wood expects risk-on assets, particularly those tied to technological innovation like Bitcoin, to thrive.

At the time of the Fox Business interview, Bitcoin was trading at $94,011, reflecting a 3.75% daily increase. For Wood, this price action is a data point in a much larger story—one where institutional adoption disrupts old cycles, a new technological era redefines value, and Bitcoin emerges as a premier asset in a productivity-driven future.