Cardano ADA Faces Bearish Pressure as Technical Signals Worsen

The most significant technical alarm for Cardano (ADA) is sounding from its monthly chart, where the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has crossed into bearish territory. This momentum-shift signal is particularly concerning for analysts like Ali Martinez, who notes its historical precedent. “The last time the monthly MACD crossed bearish, Cardano $ADA dropped 81%,” Martinez stated. The current crossover has already been followed by a 32% decline in ADA’s value, suggesting the pattern may be repeating.

Further compounding the bearish outlook, the MACD histogram remains below zero, indicating that downward pressure is still building rather than abating. This technical setup, absent any reversal signals, points to sustained selling momentum. If the historical correlation holds, analysts are monitoring the $0.23 price level as a potential zone of support, which would represent a significant drop from ADA’s current trading price of approximately $0.37.

Beyond the MACD, Cardano’s price action shows broad-based weakness. ADA continues to trade below its key weekly moving averages, with the 9-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.45 and the 21-week EMA at $0.66. The fact that the current price remains under both these levels confirms that bearish momentum is firmly in control on a medium-term timeframe.

Additional indicators reinforce this grim picture. The Awesome Oscillator remains in negative territory at -0.28, with its red bars growing, which reflects rising bearish strength and a pronounced lack of buying activity. This trend has been entrenched for months. Sentiment data from Market Prophit corroborates the technical view, reporting negative crowd and platform sentiment for ADA among both retail and institutional participants.

The bearish conviction is evident in on-chain behavior. Over the past two months, whale wallets have sold approximately 120 million ADA, applying consistent selling pressure on the asset. This large-scale distribution by major holders underscores a lack of confidence at higher price levels and contributes to ADA’s inability to stage a recovery.

The decline in Cardano is not confined to spot markets; derivatives data reveals a parallel drop in speculative interest. According to CoinGlass, futures open interest for ADA has plummeted to around $660 million. This marks a sharp contraction from levels above $1 billion seen earlier in the year, with most of the decline occurring after October as prices fell.

This reduction in open interest—the total value of outstanding derivative contracts—is a critical signal. It indicates that traders are becoming less active in leveraged positions, often a sign of waning short-term speculation and declining market participation. The simultaneous drop in both price and open interest reflects a weaker overall market structure for ADA, where neither bulls nor bears are committing significant capital, typically a precursor to continued directional momentum—in this case, downward.

With a market capitalization of $13.6 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $576 million, Cardano remains a major cryptocurrency, but its current technical and market posture is undeniably fragile. The convergence of a bearish monthly MACD, price action below key moving averages, negative oscillator readings, falling futures interest, and persistent whale selling creates a formidable headwind.

The core question for analysts and investors is whether the current setup will mirror the historical 81% decline. While the 32% drop following the recent MACD crossover suggests the bearish cycle is already underway, the absence of any technical reversal signs means selling pressure is likely to continue. All eyes are now on whether ADA can find a floor, with the $0.23 level emerging as a critical test of support should the downward trajectory hold. For now, the burden of proof lies with the bulls to demonstrate a change in momentum.