Bollinger Sees W Bottoms in ETH, SOL—Not Bitcoin

John Bollinger’s recent analysis emphasizes that Ethereum and Solana are tracing potential ‘W’ bottoms specifically ‘in Bollinger Band terms,’ a crucial distinction that separates this pattern from simple price chart formations. In classic Bollinger taxonomy, a W bottom represents a two-trough reversal pattern where the second low holds above the first, accompanied by specific volatility signatures. This includes prior band expansion, subsequent contraction, and critically, a failure to register a lower low at the bands on the second leg.

The more robust versions of this pattern see the second low forming inside the bands or with positive divergence against the lower band, followed by a band ‘pinch’ and a move through the middle band that transitions into an upper-band walk. Bollinger’s careful phrasing—using ‘potential’ and noting it’s ‘gonna be time to pay attention soon’—signals that in his framework, pattern recognition precedes confirmation. The validation trigger lies in subsequent price interaction with the middle and upper bands rather than in the raw shape of the price lows alone.

The significance of Bollinger’s analysis extends beyond the technical pattern itself, given the extreme rarity of his crypto market calls. As crypto trader Satoshi Flipper emphasized, ‘John Bollinger, creator of Bollinger Bands, makes barely 1 crypto call per year and hasn’t made one for ETH in 3 years until yesterday. And each call he makes goes on to mark generational bottoms.’ This sentiment captures the prevailing market psychology where Bollinger’s infrequent, technically disciplined alerts are perceived by many traders as cycle-defining events.

Historical context underscores why traders pay such close attention to Bollinger’s crypto commentary. His last notable Ethereum call dates to September 9, 2022, after which ETH ‘went on to pump from $1,290 to $4,000’—representing a 210% surge. More recently, on April 10, 2025, Bollinger publicly flagged a similar structure in Bitcoin, stating: ‘Classic Bollinger Band W bottom setting up in BTCUSD. Still needs confirmation.’ In the exact same week, BTC carved out a bottom at $74,508 and proceeded to log seven straight green weekly candles, advancing roughly 55%, with the rally ultimately reaching more than 70% from Bollinger’s call into the first week of October.

The most telling nuance in Bollinger’s latest analysis is the explicit exclusion of Bitcoin from the W bottom pattern. If ETHUSD and SOLUSD are printing W-like structures in Bollinger terms while BTCUSD is not, this implies a potential temporary decoupling in volatility structure and relative strength between the major cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, a non-confirming status means it could either lag into a later confirmation, remain range-bound in a mid-band churn, or fail its own setup entirely if lower-band interactions persist without recapture of the middle band.

For Ethereum and Solana, confirmation would typically require sustained closes above the 20-period moving average (the Bollinger middle band), followed by a disciplined advance that converts the upper band from resistance into a guide. A healthy W bottom sequence tends not to produce immediate, vertical band overthrows; rather, it builds a stair-step profile with periodic mid-band checks that hold as support. Failure would involve another lower-band excursion that undercuts the second trough or a volatility bloom that widens the bands without directional follow-through—both signatures of an incomplete base formation.

At press time, with ETH trading at $4,037, the market now watches for the confirmation signals Bollinger’s framework requires. The combination of his rare crypto commentary, the specific technical pattern identification, and the historical precedent of his calls marking significant market bottoms creates a compelling setup for Ethereum and Solana traders. However, as Bollinger himself emphasizes, the ‘potential’ nature of these patterns means traders should await confirmation through price interaction with the middle and upper bands before considering the reversal pattern validated.