BlackRock Spot XRP ETF in 2026? AI Predicts Moderate to High Chance

The spot XRP ETF market officially opened on November 13th, 2023, with the launch of the XRPC fund by Canary Capital. This pioneering move was quickly followed by four other major financial institutions, creating a competitive field of five products trading on major U.S. exchanges. As of January 9th, the assets under management (AUM) for these funds are: Canary Capital’s XRPC (trading on NASDAQ) at $375 million; Bitwise’s XRP fund (NYSE) at $300 million; Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ (NYSE) at $279 million; Grayscale’s GXRP (NYSE) at $271 million; and 21 Shares’ TOXR (CBOE) at $246 million.

This combined AUM of roughly $1.5 billion underscores significant institutional and investor appetite for regulated exposure to XRP. Data from analytics firm SoSoValue indicates that this AUM was on a nearly constant upward trajectory until January 5th, after which it experienced a net decline of around $150 million. Notably, this growth in XRP ETF assets has occurred even as the larger spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF market has been “bleeding assets” since October 2025, highlighting a distinct and resilient demand for XRP-based products.

A pivotal development paving the way for this market emergence was the resolution of the long-running legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The dispute, which effectively ended in August 2025, resulted in a critical clarification: XRP is not considered a security when sold on secondary markets. This settlement removed a major regulatory overhang that had previously deterred more conservative institutional players from engaging with XRP, providing the legal certainty necessary for ETF issuers to proceed.

This regulatory milestone is cited by AI models as a fundamental reason why the environment has shifted. The path for crypto investment products, once obstructed by legal uncertainty, is now described as “clear,” with the “regulatory blockers that previously kept conservative giants like BlackRock on the sidelines” having “largely been removed.” This change is essential context for assessing BlackRock’s potential entry.

According to analysis from Google’s AI model, Gemini, there is now a “moderate to high likelihood” that BlackRock will launch a spot XRP ETF later in 2026. The primary reason cited is fear of missing out (FOMO) on a proven market. Gemini argues that the success of competitors, who have collectively attracted over a billion dollars in inflows, is a clear signal of institutional demand that BlackRock cannot ignore.

This assessment is corroborated by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which assigns a moderate chance of up to 50% for BlackRock to eventually launch a spot XRP ETF in the latter part of 2026. The convergence of AI predictions points to a logical business imperative: with regulatory hurdles lowered and a successful product template established by firms like Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21 Shares, the world’s largest asset manager may see a strategic need to participate in this growing asset class to maintain its comprehensive product offerings and capture a share of the demonstrated demand.