Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $1M as Institutions Drive 2026 Rally

The core of Bitwise’s optimistic projection rests on a seismic shift in market participation. According to Ryan Rasmussen, institutional money is moving “from the sidelines onto the field.” The advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and integration by major brokerages have created a compliant, accessible on-ramp for pension funds, endowments, and traditional fund managers who were previously sidelined. This structural change is expected to funnel tens of billions of dollars into the Bitcoin market in 2026 alone, a scale of buying that could fundamentally alter its supply and demand mechanics.

This steady, institutional inflow is poised to change how Bitcoin reacts to supply events. Historically, sharp price drops often followed periods of increased selling pressure. However, Bitwise argues that a persistent baseline of institutional demand could soften these volatility spikes. The buying behavior via ETFs and brokerages is characteristically different from the sentiment-driven swings of retail investors, potentially creating a more stable price floor and reducing the severity of corrections.

Bitwise’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s famous four-year halving cycle, long treated as a predictable catalyst for major price moves, is seeing its influence fade. The firm argues that as market access broadens and more investor types hold stakes, prices now react to a more complex mix of signals beyond just miner supply reduction. Factors like interest rate shifts and the heavy liquidations witnessed in late 2025 now play a significant role in shaping price patterns, indicating a market maturing beyond a single, dominant narrative.

Concurrent with this is a notable decline in Bitcoin’s notorious volatility. Reports indicate a steady fall in its price swings over the past decade, with Bitcoin’s volatility in 2025 dipping below that of some major technology stocks. This increased stability is crucial for institutional managers who require predictable risk profiles for their portfolios. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities appears to be loosening. A lower correlation strengthens Bitcoin’s case as a distinct, non-correlated asset class within a diversified portfolio, rather than merely a proxy for broader market risk appetite.

The path to $1 million is not without near-term hurdles. Bitcoin recently traded near $75,000, a level that represents a roughly 35% decline from its peak of $126,085 on October 6, 2025. This sell-off wiped about 10% of its value in a single week, cooling market sentiment and prompting some capital to exit. However, Bitwise contends that such short-term shocks may become less defining for the long-term trajectory.

The firm’s rationale is that the growing institutional framework provides a counterbalance. While retail-driven panic can fuel sharp declines, the steadier, programmatic buying through institutional channels may help cushion these falls. The vision of Bitcoin reaching $1 million, while distant, is framed by Rasmussen as a realistic outcome if current trends of institutional adoption and broadening market access continue. Bitwise posits that 2026 could serve as a pivotal turning point, setting the stage for a decade where Bitcoin transitions from a speculative frontier asset to a recognized vehicle for long-term wealth growth.