Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin All-Time High in 2026, End of 4-Year Cycle

For years, Bitcoin’s price action has been analyzed through the lens of a predictable four-year cycle, typically characterized by three years of significant gains followed by a sharp pullback. According to this historical pattern, 2026 would be slated as a ‘down’ year. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan explicitly challenges this notion. ‘We don’t see that happening,’ Hougan stated. The firm argues that the traditional forces powering this cycle—the Bitcoin halving event, macroeconomic interest rate fluctuations, and the boom-and-bust cycles fueled by excessive leverage within the crypto ecosystem—have lost much of their previous potency.

Instead, Bitwise identifies new, structural supports for Bitcoin’s price. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has opened a sustained floodgate of institutional capital, providing a more stable and continuous source of demand. This institutional momentum, combined with what the firm describes as ‘regulatory tailwinds,’ is expected to overpower the old cyclical dynamics. ‘We expect the combination of these factors will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, relegating the four-year cycle to history’s dustbin,’ Hougan added. The firm’s specific price target is above Bitcoin’s current record of $126,080, set in early October.

Bitwise’s 2026 outlook extends beyond simple price prediction to forecast a transformation in Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets and its own risk profile. The report notes that while traditional equity indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (NDX) have posted gains of 12% and 14.5% respectively over the past year, Bitcoin is down nearly 18% in the same period, despite its recent rally. Bitwise expects this divergence to widen in 2026, predicting that Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market will fall as its adoption narrative becomes more distinct, driven by regulatory progress and its unique value proposition as a digital asset.

Perhaps more striking is the volatility forecast. Bitcoin, infamous for its price swings, is predicted by Bitwise to exhibit less volatility in 2026 than Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s largest publicly traded company and a bellwether for the AI stock rally. This would mark a profound maturation for the crypto asset. Combining these predictions—strong returns, lower correlation to equities, and reduced volatility—creates what Bitwise calls a ‘trifecta’ for investors, positioning Bitcoin not just as a speculative bet, but as a potentially stabilizing component in a diversified portfolio.

While Bitcoin stands at the center of Bitwise’s report, the outlook also makes significant predictions for other major crypto assets, albeit with a critical regulatory caveat. The firm believes Ethereum and Solana have clear paths to new all-time highs, but this potential is explicitly conditional on the passage of the U.S. CLARITY Act. This legislation, often referred to as the crypto market structure bill, aims to provide comprehensive regulatory clarity for digital assets.

Bitwise identifies tokenization and stablecoins as two ‘megatrends’ within crypto, and it expects Ethereum and Solana—as leading layer-1 blockchains—to be the primary beneficiaries. However, large-scale institutional participation in these areas requires unambiguous legal frameworks. The CLARITY Act, by providing clear rules of the road, would solidify these trends and unlock significant capital, potentially propelling ETH and SOL to new peaks. This conditional prediction underscores the firm’s overarching theme: the future of crypto is increasingly tied to regulatory developments in key jurisdictions like the United States.

Bitwise’s 2026 vision paints a picture of a market undergoing a deep institutional transformation. Beyond its flagship predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, the firm forecasts that crypto-related equities will outperform traditional tech stocks. It also anticipates a landmark shift in conservative investment portfolios, predicting that half of all Ivy League university endowments will make allocations to crypto assets by 2026.

These ancillary forecasts reinforce the core thesis: the crypto market is evolving from a retail-driven, cyclical phenomenon into an institutionally embraced asset class with its own fundamentals. The weakening of old cycle drivers, the demand from ETFs, and the potential for regulatory clarity are converging to create a new paradigm. For Bitwise, 2026 represents not just another year on the calendar, but a potential inflection point where crypto’s historical patterns are rewritten by its emerging institutional reality.