Bitwise CIO Predicts Record Bitcoin ETF Inflows by 2025

The first major catalyst identified by Bitwise’s Matt Hougan centers on the wave of institutional approvals now clearing the path for major wealth managers to offer Bitcoin ETFs to their clients. Hougan specifically highlighted Morgan Stanley’s October 1 guidance, which empowers its 16,000 advisors managing $2 trillion in client assets to include cryptocurrency allocations of up to 4% for risk-tolerant clients. This landmark decision represents a significant shift in institutional acceptance of digital assets.

Wells Fargo has made a similar strategic pivot, and Hougan suggested that other financial behemoths including UBS and Merrill Lynch (Bank of America’s wealth management arm) are likely to follow suit. While the rollout across these massive platforms won’t happen overnight, conversations Hougan has had with financial advisors indicate strong pent-up demand among clients who have been waiting for approved access to Bitcoin exposure through trusted institutional channels.

Hougan’s second factor, which he terms the ‘Debasement Trade,’ refers to the growing institutional interest in assets seen as reliable hedges against currency debasement. Bitcoin, alongside gold, has been among the year’s best-performing major assets, attracting attention from advisors seeking to protect client portfolios from monetary erosion. The United States monetary expansion since 2020 has increased by 44%, bringing this strategic trade into sharper focus for wealth managers.

Major financial institutions including JPMorgan have published reports spotlighting the debasement hedge strategy, lending credibility to the approach. Hougan argued that financial advisors looking to showcase strong year-end portfolio performance are likely to steer clients toward BTC ETFs, mirroring last year’s preference for high-performing tech equities. This strategic shift represents Bitcoin’s maturation from speculative asset to legitimate portfolio diversifier in the eyes of institutional money managers.

Bitcoin’s own market performance serves as the third fundamental driver of anticipated ETF inflows, according to Hougan’s analysis. The crypto asset recently surpassed $126,000, breaking through key psychological thresholds and posting a 9% gain in the first week of October alone. This strong price action creates a virtuous cycle where performance attracts new investment, which in turn supports further price appreciation.

Historical patterns strongly support Hougan’s thesis: quarters marked by double-digit positive returns for BTC have consistently coincided with billions in ETF inflows. The Bitwise executive believes this established pattern will repeat in Q4 2025. Early Q4 numbers already provide compelling evidence, with Bitcoin ETFs drawing $3.5 billion in just four trading days, catapulting year-to-date flows to $25.9 billion.

With 64 trading days remaining in the quarter, Hougan predicts the sector could easily exceed $10 billion more in inflows, potentially surpassing last year’s record-setting $36 billion. The combination of institutional approvals, strategic portfolio allocation shifts, and strong market performance creates what Hougan views as a perfect storm for record-breaking Bitcoin ETF inflows through the remainder of 2025.