Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin Bear Market Nearing End, New Cycle Ahead

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has challenged the conventional wisdom surrounding Bitcoin’s market cycles, suggesting that the widely followed four-year pattern belongs to a “bygone era of crypto.” In a social media post on platform X, Horsley emphasized that the cryptocurrency landscape has fundamentally transformed with the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and what he described as a new pro-crypto administration under President Trump. “We’ve entered a new market structure,” Horsley explained, highlighting how these developments have changed the players and motivations driving buying and selling behaviors.

Horsley’s analysis comes as Bitcoin retraced toward $94,500 on Friday, intensifying concerns about a broader digital asset bear market. However, the Bitwise executive offered a contrarian perspective, stating, “I think there’s a pretty good chance that we’ve been in a bear market for almost six months now and are almost through it.” His remarks suggest that the current market weakness represents the tail end of a bear cycle rather than the beginning of a prolonged downturn, with the current market setup appearing “stronger than ever” due to structural changes.

Yat Siu, co-founder of blockchain development firm Animoca Brands, echoed Horsley’s perspective on evolving market cycles in comments to CNBC. Siu noted that institutional investors entering the digital asset space through vehicles like Bitcoin ETFs don’t typically follow the longstanding belief system of traditional Bitcoin holders regarding the four-year price cycle. “People think Bitcoin is going to go down to $60,000 because of the four-year cycle and the token’s history of drops and corrections,” Siu explained, but institutional investors are likely to view market downturns differently.

According to Siu, these new institutional participants are more likely to treat price declines as buying opportunities rather than signals for panic. This behavioral shift could fundamentally alter how Bitcoin cycles play out in the future. Siu also pointed to liquidity constraints in the current market environment, noting that “there’s less money in the system” which has led some investors to divest assets to address financial concerns. This liquidity dynamic has contributed to recent selling pressure but may create opportunities for well-capitalized institutional buyers.

The recent Bitcoin price weakness has spilled over into crypto-linked equities, with several prominent companies experiencing stock declines on Friday. MicroStrategy, which has built its corporate strategy around accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury asset, saw its shares drop by 6%. Other significant players in the space also felt the pressure, with Gemini Space Station and Bullish both declining 2%, while Coinbase shares fell by 1%. Digital asset mining firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies traded 3% lower, reflecting the broader sector weakness.

These correlated declines highlight the continued sensitivity of crypto-related stocks to Bitcoin price movements, even as industry leaders suggest the underlying market structure is evolving. The performance of companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase serves as a barometer for institutional and retail sentiment toward the digital asset ecosystem, making their recent weakness particularly noteworthy amid discussions about changing market cycles.

Despite the recent price pressure, both Horsley and Siu suggest the digital asset ecosystem may be approaching a transition to a new bullish phase. Horsley’s statement that the market has “likely been in a bear market for almost six months” implies that the worst may be behind us, while his emphasis on strengthened market fundamentals points to potential upside ahead. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has created a new channel for institutional capital, while regulatory clarity under the current administration could provide additional tailwinds.

As of the latest trading data, Bitcoin had recovered to the $96,750 level but still recorded losses of 4% over both the past 24 hours and seven days. This price action reflects the ongoing uncertainty in markets but also demonstrates the resilience that both executives point to in their assessments. The combination of new institutional participation, evolving market structure, and what Horsley describes as the strongest market setup ever suggests that traditional cycle models may indeed need revision as Bitcoin matures into a more established asset class.