Bitcoin’s Worst November Since 2019 Sparks Market Standoff

Bitcoin’s 18% decline this November approaches the scale of losses seen in November 2019, when the cryptocurrency fell roughly 17%, according to data from CoinGlass. The current downturn remains far from the harsh 35% crash of November 2018, but marks one of the token’s worst performances for the month in recent years. As markets quieted heading into the weekend, Bitcoin was trading below $91,000, with midweek trade showing the token changing hands around $91,450.

Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, characterized the drop as a market reset, noting that overleveraged positions and weak projects have been mostly cleared out. This cleansing effect could create opportunities for longer-term holders to add exposure at lower prices, potentially setting the stage for a more sustainable recovery. The current environment represents a significant departure from Bitcoin’s typical November performance, which has historically been a strong month for the cryptocurrency.

Traders are closely watching a pair of monthly-close levels that could determine Bitcoin’s near-term direction. Analyst CrediBull Crypto identified $93,400 and $102,400 as the two most relevant thresholds. According to the analyst’s assessment, a close above $93,000 would be interpreted as a modest positive sign, while any monthly finish above $102,000 would be read as very bullish—though that outcome may not materialize until another month.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has shown difficulty breaking through resistance just under $92,000, leaving the cryptocurrency in a technical limbo. The token did manage to rebound above $91,800 during Thanksgiving, but the move failed to resolve the fundamental split between bullish and bearish expectations. This technical stalemate has left the market positioned between a potential push toward $100,000 and a concerning slide down to $80,000.

The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has fundamentally changed the rhythm of cryptocurrency rallies, according to industry reports. Analysts note that institutional participation has altered both the timing and breadth of market moves, meaning gains that once clustered at year-end can now appear earlier in the cycle. This structural shift may explain why November, traditionally a strong month for Bitcoin, has turned negative this year.

Market experts point to historical patterns showing that a red November has often been followed by a red December in past years, adding another layer of uncertainty to current market conditions. The institutionalization of Bitcoin markets through vehicles like spot ETFs has introduced new dynamics that are still being understood by traders and analysts alike, creating a more complex landscape for price prediction and strategy development.

Matrixport described the current market environment as a rare zone of impasse where sentiment, positioning, and macro cues are all converging without clear direction. The research firm’s #MatrixOnTarget report from November 28, 2025, highlighted how liquidity has thinned, volatility has dropped, and requests for crash protection have faded—all indicators of market uncertainty.

Glassnode data supports this assessment, showing that realized losses have risen and futures markets are deleveraging, signs that short-term conviction is weak among market participants. This combination of factors leaves Bitcoin stuck in a cautious in-between state, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish clear dominance. The Thanksgiving rally above $91,800 provided temporary optimism but ultimately failed to break the market’s indecision.

Some technical analysts noted that a bullish hammer reversal emerged when Bitcoin touched the $80,000 area, giving some traders hope of a rally into the holiday season. However, others remain concerned that weak demand and thin liquidity could push prices lower before confidence returns. In either scenario, markets have been quietly positioning for a larger directional move, even as uncertainty persists about which direction that move will ultimately take.

With the monthly close approaching, investors and traders are closely monitoring key technical levels, liquidity measures, and options flows for clues about Bitcoin’s next major move. The current stalemate between bulls and bears has created a tense waiting game, where the next clear signal could determine whether late buyers get rewarded or whether sellers establish a new, lower trading range.

The market’s current positioning reflects the broader uncertainty in crypto markets, where traditional seasonal patterns have been disrupted by institutional flows and changing market structure. As Bitcoin sits in this cautious in-between state, market participants are weighing whether the current decline represents a buying opportunity or the beginning of a more sustained downturn. The resolution of this standoff will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s performance heading into the new year.