Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ Streak Ends With 3.69% Monthly Loss

October has long been dubbed ‘Uptober’ by cryptocurrency observers due to Bitcoin’s consistent performance during the month. Historical data from CoinGlass reveals that over the previous 10 years, Bitcoin had recorded only one monthly loss in October—back in 2018. This year’s 3.69% decline marks the first negative October in six years, breaking what had become one of the most reliable seasonal patterns in digital asset markets. The downturn is particularly notable given Bitcoin’s strong start to the month, when it reached a fresh all-time high of $126,080 on October 6.

The reversal was both swift and severe, with Bitcoin sinking to levels untouched for four months and declining more than 8% over the 30-day period. At one point during the sell-off, the largest cryptocurrency by market value dropped below $106,000, demonstrating the intensity of the pressure that overwhelmed its typical seasonal strength. The break in pattern represents a significant departure from historical norms that had made ‘Uptober’ a anticipated event for cryptocurrency investors.

The plunge during a historically strong month for Bitcoin came amid unsettling macroeconomic conditions that rattled risk assets globally. Most recently, concerns about liquidity and the diminishing prospects of a third interest rate cut that investors had been eagerly anticipating created headwinds for cryptocurrency markets. The situation intensified on Wednesday when U.S. central bank Chair Jerome Powell said that a reduction was ‘not a foregone conclusion,’ sending digital assets into a tailspin.

Earlier in the month, BTC and other risk-on assets had tumbled after U.S. President Donald Trump re-escalated his trade war with China, raising concerns about the global economy. This geopolitical tension compounded existing macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a challenging environment for speculative assets like Bitcoin. The convergence of these factors created what Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon described as ‘a powerful macroeconomic shock’ that fundamentally altered market dynamics.

Beyond macroeconomic pressures, the market’s internal structure proved particularly fragile during October’s downturn. Investors liquidated more than $19 billion in positions, with nearly 90% of them being long positions expecting price increases. This massive unwinding of leveraged bets amplified the downward pressure and contributed to the severity of the decline. The scale of long position liquidations indicates that many traders were caught off-guard by the reversal, having positioned themselves for the traditional ‘Uptober’ rally.

Juan Leon of Bitwise identified the fragile internal market structure as one of three primary factors behind the negative October returns, noting that the October 11 crash had a long-term effect on market sentiment. The combination of leveraged positions being forced to unwind and the ‘lukewarm monetary policy signal’ from the Federal Reserve created what Leon characterized as a perfect storm that overwhelmed Bitcoin’s typical seasonal strength. The $19 billion in liquidations represents one of the most significant deleveraging events in recent months, highlighting the vulnerability of cryptocurrency markets to rapid sentiment shifts.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance emerged as a critical factor in October’s cryptocurrency market dynamics. Jerome Powell’s comments indicating that interest rate cuts were ‘not a foregone conclusion’ directly contradicted market expectations that had been building throughout the year. This disconnect between investor anticipation and central bank guidance triggered significant volatility across risk assets, with Bitcoin particularly affected due to its sensitivity to liquidity conditions.

The breakdown of Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ pattern serves as a reminder that historical seasonal trends can be overwhelmed by stronger fundamental forces. As Juan Leon summarized to Decrypt, ‘The negative October returns can be attributed to a convergence of three primary factors: a powerful macroeconomic shock, fragile internal market structure, and a subsequent lukewarm monetary policy signal.’ This combination proved sufficient to break one of cryptocurrency’s most reliable historical patterns, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and central bank policy may continue to exert outsized influence on Bitcoin’s price action in the coming months.