Bitcoin’s Uptober Streak at Risk Despite $125K Surge

Bitcoin’s remarkable October performance history, dating back to 2013 with only two negative years in 2014 and 2018, faces its most serious challenge in years. Despite surging above $125,000 in the first week of October 2025, the monthly close threatens to break the uninterrupted gains streak that has persisted from 2019 through 2024. The timing is particularly significant as Bitcoin approaches the monthly close with its six-year winning streak hanging in the balance.

According to analysis from Bitcoin Vector, the cryptocurrency must soon reclaim the holders’ cost-basis zone between $106,000 and $108,000 to avoid renewed downside pressure. Failure to recover this critical level could extend the current correction phase and potentially deepen the existing market downturn. The data suggests that while Bitcoin has shown resilience, the final hours of October trading will determine whether the Uptober tradition continues or finally breaks.

The current market stagnation stems primarily from a significant wave of profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs), as highlighted by analyst Axel Adler Jr. Data reveals that this cohort of investors has sold approximately 810,000 BTC since July 1, 2025, reducing their collective holdings from 15.5 million to 14.6 million Bitcoin. This substantial reduction in long-term holder positions represents one of the most significant sell-offs in recent market history.

Remarkably, Bitcoin still achieved two fresh all-time highs despite this sustained selling pressure, indicating that market demand remained robust enough to absorb the outflow. However, Adler warns that if long-term holders continue offloading coins at this pace, Bitcoin’s price growth could remain constrained, limiting the market’s bullish potential for the foreseeable future. The persistence of this selling pattern suggests that even strong demand may struggle to overcome such concentrated distribution.

In a related development, CryptoQuant research reveals that long-term Bitcoin whales—veteran investors who have weathered multiple market cycles—have realized one of their largest profits of 2025, worth approximately $271 million. This marks the third major profit spike of the year, following similar events that typically precede significant price movements as market liquidity adapts to whale activity.

Analysts believe these whales may be either anticipating short-term downside or strategically rebalancing their portfolios. The next critical market signal will come from short-term holders—if they absorb these profits effectively, consolidation may follow, but if selling accelerates, a broader market cooldown could emerge. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Vector’s analysis shows that each time BTC revisits the $106,000-$108,000 range, the Risk-Off Signal weakens, indicating that volatility shocks are being absorbed more effectively—a sign of a maturing market structure.

Arthur Azizov, Founder and Investor at B2 Ventures, provided CryptoPotato with a detailed technical assessment of Bitcoin’s current position. He noted that Bitcoin is trading within a defined range after moving sideways since July 2025. The asset recently bounced off the lower boundary of this range, potentially signaling the start of a rebound phase.

Azizov projects that if broader market conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin could move toward $123,000 and possibly retest its all-time high before year-end. However, he cautions that if Bitcoin slips below the crucial $100,000 level and consolidates there, it could extend its decline to the $96,000-$93,000 zone. The $100,000 threshold remains psychologically important and represents strong support, similar to the June 2025 rebound from comparable levels.

Looking at the most recent upward wave that began in April 2025, Azizov identifies the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around $91,000, which aligns with a weekly imbalance zone, creating a potentially powerful reversal area. However, he expresses confidence that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall that low, citing multiple supporting factors that should prevent such a deep pullback in the current market environment.