Bitcoin’s Next Rally: 3 Key Factors Driving Q4 Surge

Bitcoin has been trading rangebound around the $108,000 support and resistance zone, but crypto entrepreneur Joe Consorti describes this period as a crucial ‘positioning reset for Bitcoin’s market structure in spot and derivatives.’ The market has experienced long-term holder distribution above $100,000 and $110,000 levels, paired with macroeconomic headwinds that prevented sustained buying pressure to counteract the selling. This distribution phase culminated in what Consorti characterizes as a ‘major liquidation event that reset positioning in derivatives,’ effectively flushing excess leverage from the system.

Trader ‘Stockmoney Lizards’ observed that despite some short-term bearish technical indicators like MACD and RSI divergences, no primary indicators are flashing red signals. The trader noted that ‘this currently is a buy-the-dip opportunity for me,’ emphasizing that support remains support until broken, and resistance remains resistance until broken. This technical perspective suggests the recent consolidation represents a healthy pause rather than a trend reversal.

According to Joe Consorti, Bitcoin’s next major move will be driven by three specific factors: the US government reopening after more than three weeks of shutdown, the upcoming meeting between US and Chinese presidents to discuss trade tariffs, and Federal Reserve policy shifts. ‘Now that leverage has been flushed, the government will reopen soon, and the Trump-Xi meeting is on the horizon, Bitcoin should pick up into year-end,’ Consorti stated. The removal of these macroeconomic uncertainties is expected to provide the sustained bid that was previously missing.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy represents perhaps the most significant catalyst. A rate cut is ‘virtually guaranteed next week,’ according to analysts, with the central bank primarily focused on labor market concerns rather than being deterred by inflation data. Investor Fred Krueger highlighted the sequencing of expected cuts: ‘Rate cut in 6 days. Then again in 48 days. Then again in 97 days.’ This series of anticipated easing measures could prolong the bullish cycle, especially with a new Fed Chair expected in May who may pursue even more accommodative policies.

Consorti added that ‘managers are going to rebalance into risk by year-end,’ creating additional buying pressure for Bitcoin and other risk assets. The combination of these factors leads him to conclude that ‘it’s hard not to be bullish over the next several months and throughout 2026 despite the horrible sentiment,’ suggesting current negative market psychology may be creating a contrarian opportunity.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization remains robust at approximately $3.8 trillion, having experienced only a 1.7% decline on the day of analysis. Analyst ‘Daan Crypto Trades’ noted that ‘the Total Crypto Market Cap is still looking fine if it can hold on to this green zone.’ While acknowledging the ‘massive flush out and a lot of pain for many market participants,’ the analyst suggested that ‘it’s often exactly those events that end up creating interesting spots’ for strategic positioning.

The recent market reset has created what multiple analysts characterize as an attractive entry point. The flushing of leveraged positions, combined with the resolution of key macroeconomic uncertainties and accommodative central bank policy, sets the stage for what could be a strong finish to 2025. As Joe Consorti summarized, the convergence of these factors after the market structure reset positions Bitcoin for renewed upward momentum, with the $108,000 level serving as a critical pivot point for the next major move.