Bitcoin’s Long-Term Thesis Strengthens as Global Money Supply Hits $142T

While Bitcoin and Ethereum stumble through their worst performance in recent memory, macro analyst James Lavish emphasizes that the real story isn’t about price swings or fleeting sentiment. The Bitcoin long-term thesis remains fundamentally unchanged, anchored in what Lavish describes as “the unyielding march of governments running deficits, central banks flooding the system with liquidity, and institutions quietly accumulating for the long haul.” This perspective cuts through the noise of daily price movements to focus on foundational macroeconomic trends that continue to strengthen Bitcoin’s value proposition.

As Lavish commented: “Seeing many bad takes on Bitcoin this morning, so perhaps we should return to first principles: Governments will keep overspending, global liquidity will keep expanding, and long-term, Bitcoin will reflect inflation that continues ad infinitum.” This sentiment is echoed by The Wolf of All Streets’ Scott Melker, who notes that “if you believe that bitcoin price is going much higher over time, then it makes almost no difference whether you buy at 94k, 97k or 100k. You just buy.” The message from seasoned analysts is clear: short-term price movements should not distract from Bitcoin’s enduring macro narrative.

The backdrop for Bitcoin’s strengthening thesis is characterized by unprecedented monetary expansion and fiscal indiscipline. The broad global money supply reached an astounding $142 trillion by September 2025, representing a 446% increase since 2000. Year-over-year growth hit 7%, with a remarkable 9.1% spike recorded so far in 2025 alone. This liquidity surge has become an enduring feature of the global financial landscape, with central banks across developed markets continuing to flood the system with capital.

Geographic distribution of this monetary expansion reveals concentrated growth in the world’s largest economies. China now boasts $47.1 trillion in circulating money, while the United States maintains $22.2 trillion. Meanwhile, fiscal discipline remains a distant memory for most major economies. The United States reported a budget deficit of $1.775 trillion in fiscal 2025, with government expenditures climbing to $7.01 trillion by year’s end. President Trump has kept large-scale stimulus on the table, with renewed proposals for $2,000 direct checks to households illustrating why elevated spending pressures have become a structural fixture of American fiscal policy.

This parallel expansion of government debt and fiat debasement plays out in real-time, creating the perfect environment for Bitcoin’s value proposition to shine. As governments continue overspending and central banks maintain expansive monetary policies, Bitcoin becomes increasingly relevant as a hedge against what analysts describe as “inflation that continues ad infinitum.”

Despite recent market downturns shaking retail investor confidence, institutional adoption tells a different story. Harvard University, one of the world’s most closely watched endowments, tripled its Bitcoin ETF holdings in the third quarter of 2025, bringing its position to $443 million. This represents a massive 257% increase and marks a significant milestone: IBIT has become Harvard’s top allocation ahead of traditional blue-chip assets.

This institutional accumulation pattern demonstrates rising conviction among sophisticated investors who see beyond short-term volatility. While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index tumbles into extreme fear territory, institutions like Harvard are making substantial bets on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Their continuous investment shows that the broader trend of institutional adoption remains intact, even as retail sentiment wavers.

The significance of Harvard’s move cannot be overstated. As one of the most prestigious and conservative institutional investors globally, their decision to make Bitcoin their top allocation signals a fundamental shift in how sophisticated money views digital assets. This institutional endorsement provides strong validation for Bitcoin’s role as a legitimate store of value and inflation hedge in an era of unprecedented monetary expansion.

Every expansionary policy, every deficit funding round, and every stimulus package underscores a simple reality: inflation is here to stay, and Bitcoin will reflect that reality. Bitcoin’s value proposition strengthens with each tick higher in the global money supply. When the global money supply surges past $140 trillion and the world’s biggest economies keep printing, Bitcoin transforms from a speculative asset into a essential hedge against infinite currency debasement.

The fundamental backdrop supporting Bitcoin’s long-term thesis remains firmly in place. Governments continue overspending, global liquidity keeps expanding, and fiscal discipline remains elusive. As James Lavish succinctly puts it, Bitcoin’s future remains “anchored in inflation that continues ad infinitum.” This makes Bitcoin more relevant than ever in the current macroeconomic environment.

Faced with waves of negative commentary after every price dip, Bitcoin’s fundamentals deserve renewed focus. The combination of outsized government deficits, ceaseless liquidity creation, and institutional accumulation creates a powerful narrative that transcends daily price movements. In this context, Bitcoin isn’t just built for this moment—it’s built for the new monetary reality that defines our economic landscape.