Bitcoin’s Historic 2025: First Post-Halving Year Ends in Red

The narrative of Bitcoin in 2025 is one of contradictory milestones. The cryptocurrency achieved several consecutive all-time highs, yet its price ultimately closed the year below where it started, marking the first such occurrence in a post-halving year. The final weeks of 2025 exemplified this volatility, with BTC dipping to a local low of $84,500 on December 19 following the release of US CPI numbers. It then entered a tight trading range between $86,500 and $90,500, repeatedly failing to decisively break the upper boundary. Each attempt above $90,500 was met with immediate rejection, leading to retracements. The pattern persisted into the final business week, with a spike to $90,500 swiftly countered by selling pressure that drove the price under $87,000 before a partial recovery.

This sideways, rejection-heavy action culminated in Bitcoin closing 2025 below $88,000, securing a yearly loss. The first day of 2026 saw a similar script: an offensive push to $90,000 was halted, driving the price down by approximately $1,500, though it managed to recover to above $89,000. This left BTC with a weekly gain of over 2%, but its market dominance told another story. The total cryptocurrency market cap declined by 0.6% weekly as major altcoins, including ETH, BNB, SOL, and ADA, posted gains of 5-6%, with DOGE and ZEC rising more than 9%. This relative underperformance highlights a shifting dynamic as the new year begins.

Despite the weak year-end momentum and historic negative close, significant institutional players demonstrated unwavering accumulation strategies. Tether, the stablecoin giant led by Paolo Ardoino, confirmed a massive $779 million Bitcoin purchase in Q4 2025, acquiring 8,888.8888888 BTC. This move underscores a long-term bullish stance irrespective of near-term price action. Similarly, the firm Strategy announced a substantial Bitcoin purchase last week, while Metaplanet, a notable corporate holder, returned to the BTC accumulation scene after a brief hiatus.

The accumulation trend extended beyond Bitcoin. Despite Ethereum suffering its worst year since 2018, with nine monthly closures in the red for 2025, its largest accumulator, BitMine, doubled down. Recent on-chain data indicated BitMine purchased an additional 32,938 ETH and staked almost 120,000 tokens. This persistent buying from major entities like Tether, Strategy, Metaplanet, and BitMine creates a fascinating counter-narrative to the sluggish price performance, suggesting deep-pocketed investors are using periods of uncertainty and consolidation to build positions.

With 2025 in the history books, analysts have turned their attention to 2026. An assessment published by XWIN Research Japan predicts Bitcoin will trade within a wide range, between $80,000 and $140,000, throughout the new year. This forecast for a range-bound market aligns with the choppy, rejection-prone price action observed at the end of 2025 and suggests a period of consolidation may be ahead.

The broader market context adds layers to Bitcoin’s unique story. The so-called “$10,000 Trump Trade,” referencing promises made during the political cycle, failed to materialize for larger-cap digital assets by the end of the year, unlike gains seen in the US stock market or precious metals. Furthermore, while Bitcoin broke its post-halving year streak, Ethereum’s performance was notably bleak, cementing 2025 as a challenging year for the two crypto giants. As of the latest data, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.110 trillion, with a 24-hour volume of $100 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance at 57.1%.