Introduction
Jeff Park of ProCap BTC argues that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle anchored to halving events is becoming obsolete. He believes institutional demand is creating new market rhythms that override historical patterns. Current price weakness may help break the psychological hold of outdated trading narratives.
Key Points
- Approximately one-third of Bitcoin supply is held by large wallets that still trade based on four-year cycle beliefs, creating self-fulfilling price patterns
- Institutional capital flows are creating new market rhythms that override traditional halving-anchored cycles
- A slightly negative 2025 close could permanently break the psychological hold of the four-year cycle narrative
The End of Halving-Driven Cycles
Jeff Park, Partner and CIO at ProCap BTC, made a compelling case during his November 20 conversation with Anthony Pompliano that Bitcoin’s classic four-year cycle is nearing its end. “The four year cycle is almost definitively over,” Park stated, explaining that what it was “based off of historically, which is the halving, is just irrelevant from the additional marginal demand that comes from other channels that have opened up.” This fundamental shift represents a significant departure from the market patterns that have characterized Bitcoin’s price action for over a decade.
Park’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning into a new market cadence more aligned with institutional participation. “Logically and fundamentally the four-year cycle should no longer exist and a new cycle should emerge that is more in sync with institutional risk capital appetite,” he explained. This institutional-driven rhythm represents a maturation of the Bitcoin market, moving away from retail-dominated patterns toward more traditional financial market dynamics where institutional capital flows dictate price movements rather than scheduled supply events.
The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Large Holders
Despite the fundamental case for cycle change, Park acknowledges the powerful psychological forces maintaining the status quo. “There is still a big group of investors that believe it should exist,” he said, describing early adopters with “characteristics that almost feel like the occult where they have prophecies.” These market participants continue to trade as if the four-year script remains valid, creating a self-reinforcing dynamic that sustains the very pattern Park argues should be obsolete.
The concentration of Bitcoin ownership gives these beliefs substantial market impact. Park noted that “the biggest Bitcoin holders in wallets that are 10,000 [BTC] and plus in size still control a good chunk of the market […] they are still a third of the Bitcoin market.” This concentration creates what Park describes as a reflexive relationship: “if a third of the Bitcoin holders believe the four-year cycle is true and they act like the four-year cycle is true, well then it doesn’t really matter because they’re the price setters […] these things can be self-fulfilling.” The market power of these large holders means their collective beliefs can temporarily override fundamental shifts in market structure.
The Strategic Case for Current Weakness
Park views the current price weakness around $85,000 as potentially constructive for breaking the psychological cycle. He noted that Bitcoin is now “below year to date […] in 2025,” raising the possibility of a red yearly close. In a deliberately sharp observation, he joked that if 2025 ends negative, “that breaks the four-year cycle because now we have a red [yearly candle] and so it’s a three-year cycle.” This humorous comment masks a serious strategic preference for market dynamics.
The ProCap CIO framed a marginally positive close as the worst possible outcome. “The last thing I want honestly is […] an up 5% year to 2025 where we close at like $98K or $99K or $100K and that counts as a green year,” he explained, because then “the next year everyone’s going to talk about […] this is the down year now,” leaving 2026 under the “harrowing weight over your head that we’re actually going to have another down year.” Park clearly prefers a clean break from historical patterns rather than perpetuating what he views as an outdated narrative.
When Anthony Pompliano pressed on whether Bitcoin could simply rally to $140,000 and invalidate the cycle-break thesis, Park acknowledged the possibility. “It’s absolutely possible. Anything can happen,” he replied. However, he summarized the strategic trade-off starkly: “we either have to hope for […] that it either goes up a lot to make the year count or we just try to notch in a small loss here for the year so we can just wipe out the four-year cycle altogether.” For Park, Bitcoin trading around $85,000 represents “good news” primarily because it increases the likelihood of breaking what he sees as a self-reinforcing calendar myth, potentially clearing the way for a market driven less by halving folklore and more by institutional risk capital cycles.
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