Bitcoin’s Final Bull Run: Blowoff Top Imminent or Already In?

According to cycle analyst Bob Loukas, Bitcoin is approaching a decisive inflection point in its four-year cycle. In a late-September analysis, Loukas presented two starkly different possibilities: either a euphoric ‘blowoff’ advance is imminent, beginning within days, or the market has already printed its peak at month 33 of the current cycle. He remains ‘heavily’ inclined toward an upside resolution into a cycle high during Q4 2025, but carefully outlined the risk markers that would instead confirm the top is already in.

Loukas framed the present as the late stage of Bitcoin’s rising phase, noting that the advance from the bear-market low has been ‘a pretty consistent uptrend marked by these periods of outperformance that make up the majority of the gains in this cycle.’ He described the current multi-month range as resembling ‘one big foundation, one big solid block’ built amid sustained distribution from long-term holders offset by persistent institutional demand. ‘We’ve seen a significant amount of whales selling… and that’s been kind of the pressure,’ he said, while acknowledging that ‘significant buying support that we see from institutionals… has held the price in this range.’

The central pillar of Loukas’s bullish case is the absence of a terminal mania phase that has historically characterized Bitcoin cycle peaks. ‘What’s absent more importantly here is a blowoff to a high,’ Loukas emphasized. ‘In every cycle that we’ve had for Bitcoin into the four-year cycle high, we’ve had this three-month period… of euphoric buying and a significant price appreciation… and that leads to a peak.’ With the market now around month 34 from the prior four-year-cycle low and seasonality turning favorable, he believes the conditions for that late surge are firmly in place.

‘We really should be looking for a blowoff phase that is imminent, that is just about to begin in my opinion… We are at the most opportune time in the four-year cycle for such a move,’ Loukas stated. If this scenario materializes, he expects it to follow the established template of late-cycle weekly advances that compound rapidly over eight to fifteen weeks. While avoiding hard targets, he illustrated the potential magnitude using prior doubling moves: ‘A doubling from the lows here in the last few months—let’s call it $105k—gets us up to $210k… getting to the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic… there is a pretty clear path to that possibility.’

Loukas emphasized that execution should be guided by sentiment and overextension rather than round-number targets: ‘I think we want to be a little flexible… looking at how stretched this market can get.’ For confirmation of the bullish scenario, he wants to see fresh all-time highs that establish clear invalidation below. ‘Ideally, what I want to see is a move back above the $120,000 level… if we get a move to new all-time highs, then that certainly would become my floor,’ he explained.

Despite his bullish inclination, Loukas placed the recent August high at month 33, a timing band that ‘pretty closely’ echoes prior cycles and makes a bearish interpretation ‘credible.’ He acknowledged giving an ‘outside chance that it peaked on month 33… maybe 10% to 20%,’ particularly given what he described as ‘a very healthy 700% rise’ from the bear-market low to the month-33 high. Under a diminishing-returns framework, this could represent a complete cycle in itself.

Risk management formed a major focus of Loukas’s analysis. He flagged the 10-month moving average—’around about the $100,000 level’—as a critical late-cycle guardrail: ‘Closing a month out under the $100,000 is a major warning sign at this point.’ He also marked the prior ‘big weekly cycle decline down at $75,000’ as a line that ‘Bitcoin shouldn’t be anywhere near,’ implying that a breach would be consistent with a bear market already underway. A subsequent reversal ‘back below the $105,000 level’ after printing a new high would ‘indicate a change in trend and a likely top.’

Loukas also explored a third potential path: a more extended cycle that peaks in early 2026 with a shorter-than-usual bear phase. This scenario would probably not feature a classic blowoff and might advance in a ‘controlled rise’ toward the $140,000–$160,000 area before consolidating and attempting a final push. Under that path, he would ‘play it week by week and month by month and give Bitcoin a chance to continue extending into Q1 of ’26 and beyond,’ waiting for unmistakable euphoric conditions before distributing.

While acknowledging that ‘everybody’ is watching Q4 seasonality and four-year-cycle dynamics, Loukas cautioned against overthinking the consensus. ‘Historically… it ends up still unfolding in a similar way,’ he noted. His base case remains that the market is ‘on the cusp of a significant start to a final leg into the bull market high,’ with a peak most likely in the 35–37-month window from the prior cycle low. ‘The point,’ he concluded, ‘is we’re not trying to time an hourly or a daily or a weekly move. We’re in this [on] a four-year-cycle time frame.’ The plan forward is straightforward: ‘Stay humble… let the price action unfold… and try and capitalize on what I think will be the last move of this four-year cycle.’