Bitcoin’s Epic Battle: Why Bears Are Outweighing Bulls

The current stagnation in Bitcoin’s price, as highlighted by veteran analyst PlanB, stems from a near-perfect equilibrium between two powerful opposing forces. According to his analysis, 50% of the market pressure is selling, originating from three distinct cohorts. The first are original holders (‘OGs’) still psychologically scarred by the 2021 market peak and subsequent crash. The second group comprises technical traders closely monitoring indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which may signal overbought or oversold conditions. The third are adherents to the popular four-year cycle theory, who anticipate a bear market phase roughly two years after a Bitcoin halving event.

Arrayed against these sellers is the other 50%: buyers operating on a different thesis. This group is dominated by investors focused on Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals, such as its fixed supply and adoption curve, alongside growing institutional interest from traditional finance (TradFi) and major banks. PlanB characterizes this dynamic as an ‘epic battle’ that will only conclude once the selling cohort exhausts its ‘ammo.’ For now, the bears appear to have the upper hand, keeping markets suppressed and preventing the bullish momentum many had anticipated.

While a 31% correction from an all-time high is not unprecedented in Bitcoin’s volatile history, analysts warn that far steeper declines are possible if a true bear market takes hold. Crypto entrepreneur Joe Consorti notes that when Bitcoin was similarly oversold on weekly charts in late 2018, it plunged an additional 44%. A parallel scenario in 2022 saw a further 54% drop. ‘If a proper bear market is underway, things can get much worse,’ Consorti stated, though he clarified that a deeper crash is not his base case. He suggests Bitcoin could instead ‘chop around and form a bottom here,’ as it did in September 2024 and April 2025, emphasizing that such ‘bottom formation takes time.’

The bearish outlook finds its most extreme voice in Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who has publicly stated he expects Bitcoin to ‘revert back toward $10,000.’ Such a prediction implies a catastrophic drop below the previous cycle’s low of approximately $15,000—a level many believe would signal a terminal decline for the entire crypto asset class. While this view is a minority one, its existence underscores the depth of current pessimism. This sentiment is quantified by market metrics: Bitcoin is currently experiencing its longest-ever consecutive streak in the ‘extreme fear’ zone on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Recent trading activity reflects this uncertainty. After hitting a low near $85,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin managed a marginal recovery, briefly approaching $88,000. However, a lack of sustained buying pressure at these levels caused a pullback to around $87,500 during Asian trading hours. Zooming out to a one-month view reveals a market trapped in a range, following the severe declines of October and November. This period of consolidation is the critical juncture: it could represent the arduous process of forming a durable market bottom, or it could be merely a pause—a ‘final cling to support’—before another leg down.

The overarching question for investors is which narrative will prevail. Will the fundamental and institutional buyers, convinced of Bitcoin’s long-term value, eventually absorb all the selling from traumatized holders and technical traders? Or will the weight of historical analogies, cycle theories, and extreme fear trigger another capitulation event? The data shows bears are currently beating the bulls, but the war for Bitcoin’s medium-term direction remains fiercely contested. The resolution hinges on whether the current range-bound action is a sign of equilibrium or exhaustion.