Bitcoin’s Cycle Shift: 55–65% Odds of Green 2026

For over ten years, Bitcoin’s yearly price movements followed a remarkably consistent sequence, as highlighted by analyst Egrag Crypto. The pattern was three consecutive green (up) years followed by a single red (down) year, a rhythm that neatly aligned with the cryptocurrency’s four-year halving cycle. Historically, the year following a halving event was reliably bullish, reinforcing this predictable cadence.

However, Egrag Crypto notes this cycle has definitively broken that rhythm. The sequence from 2023 to 2025 has manifested as Green, Green, Red—deviating from the expected Green, Green, Green, Red pattern observed in past cycles. This deviation is the core of the current analytical debate, prompting questions about whether Bitcoin’s market fundamentals are undergoing a structural change. The break was echoed by chartist PlanB on X, who clarified that while the post-halving year typically performs well, 2025 clearly broke that established pattern.

In light of this broken pattern, Egrag Crypto has framed a probabilistic outlook for 2026. He assigns a 55% to 65% chance that the year will ultimately close green, interpreting 2025’s red candle not as the start of a broader downturn but as a necessary cooling or consolidation phase within a continuing macro uptrend. This bullish view is not unconditional; it hinges on several key confirmation signals from the market.

These critical signals include strong monthly candle closes above the $105,000 area, sustained price stability above a macro support band near $90,000, and demonstrable momentum strength on higher timeframes like weekly and monthly charts. Should these conditions fail to materialize, Egrag Crypto places a 35–45% probability on a red 2026. Importantly, this scenario is characterized not as a crash but as an extended period of stretched consolidation, likely featuring wider trading ranges and slower price progress as the market digests its recent gains.

Amid this theoretical debate, Bitcoin’s on-chain and price action provides concrete data. According to CoinGecko, BTC was trading just under $97,000, marking an approximate 2% gain on the day, an 8% weekly increase, and a 12% rise over the past month. The move from under $90,000 to touching $98,000 within days allowed the asset to reclaim several former resistance zones. Analysts like Ted Pillows are now watching technical checkpoints such as the 50-week exponential moving average near $97,500 following the reclaim of the $95,000 region.

Holder behavior reveals a market of contrasting sentiments. Data from Darkfost indicated that as BTC rebounded toward $97,000, over 40,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges in a single day. This activity suggests short-term holders are reacting with caution and taking profits following the late-2025 correction. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance has climbed above 57%, as most large altcoins lagged behind during the rebound, reinforcing Bitcoin’s relative strength and its role as the market’s primary bellwether.

The discussion around cycle breaks also involves clarifying other influential models. Chartist PlanB emphasized that the four-year cycle should not be confused with the stock-to-flow model. He explained that while stock-to-flow is often cited, it tracks average prices across an entire cycle rather than predicting specific tops or bottoms. This distinction is crucial for current analysis.

Applying this model, PlanB noted that the current cycle’s average price sits near $90,000, a figure that stands well above the prior cycle’s average of approximately $34,000. This significant elevation in the cycle’s average price point underscores Bitcoin’s maturation and the evolution of its market structure, even as the timing and sequence of yearly candles appear to be shifting. It suggests that while the rhythm may have changed, the underlying valuation framework on a macro scale continues to demonstrate upward progression.