Introduction
Bitcoin investors have locked in net realized losses for the first time since October 2023, with approximately 69,000 BTC ($6.18 billion) in losses recorded over a 30-day period. This shift from profit-taking to loss-taking represents a psychological threshold not seen in over two years and mirrors patterns observed before the 2022 bear market. Analysts debate whether this signals an impending downturn or reflects increased market sophistication and macroeconomic sensitivity.
Key Points
- Bitcoin's net realized profit/loss metric turned negative for the first time in over two years, with 69,000 BTC ($6.18B) in losses locked in during a 30-day period.
- Analysts are divided: CryptoQuant sees parallels to March 2022 bear market patterns, while Derive Research attributes the trend to sophisticated players reducing volatility.
- Macroeconomic factors—including Fed policy, U.S. debt crisis, and geopolitical events—are increasingly driving Bitcoin's price more than on-chain metrics.
A Critical On-Chain Health Check
Bitcoin’s market structure is flashing a warning sign not witnessed since late 2023. According to data from CryptoQuant, the net realized profit/loss metric—which aggregates the gains or losses investors lock in when moving coins on-chain—has slipped into negative territory. This indicates that, on aggregate, holders are now booking losses rather than profits. “This is the first time holders realized net losses in a 30-day period since October 2023,” analysts at CryptoQuant stated in a recent report. The cumulative net realized losses over this period total approximately 69,000 BTC, which, with Bitcoin trading around $89,700, amounts to a staggering $6.18 billion in value.
The significance of this shift is profound. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, characterized the move on social media, stating, “Bitcoin tourists are cutting losses.” This suggests that short-term holders, often the most reactive to price swings, are now exiting their positions at a loss. The pattern provides a critical on-chain health check, signaling a potential inflection point from the bull market that began in late 2023. The data reveals a stark divergence from earlier market highs: while the March 2024 price peak saw 1.2 million BTC in realized profit, that figure had fallen to just 331,000 BTC by October 2025, even as Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high of $124,774.
Echoes of 2022 or a Sign of Maturity?
Historical parallels are drawing concern from some analysts. The CryptoQuant report noted that “net realized losses are also tracking similar levels and patterns to March 2022, by which point the bear market was already underway.” The firm added that “declining net realized profits indicate a loss of strength in the price of Bitcoin.” This mirroring of a setup seen before Bitcoin’s 2022 downturn presents a cautionary narrative for investors gauging market strength, suggesting the current bull run may be losing its foundational support from investor profit-taking.
However, not all analysts interpret the data as a precursor to a downturn. Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, offered a contrasting view in comments to Decrypt. “I don’t think these two are correlated,” Dawson said, referring to the link between declining realized profits and an impending price drop. He argues the decline in net realized profit and loss is instead a sign of lowered volatility, attributable to “more sophisticated players entering the digital asset space.” In this view, the metric reflects a maturing market where seasoned investors hold through volatility, reducing the frequency of high-profit transactions that inflate the realized profits figure.
The Macroeconomic Lens Takes Priority
The debate underscores a broader shift in how Bitcoin’s trajectory is assessed. Dawson emphasized that macroeconomic factors have become the primary driver for Bitcoin’s price, noting the asset’s increasing sensitivity to policy shifts over on-chain metrics. “I’d place a heavier emphasis on Fed rate forecasts, the impending U.S. debt crisis, and its foreign policy,” Dawson stated. This perspective suggests the outlook for 2026 is increasingly dependent on policy, not solely on-chain data.
Recent price action supports this macro-focused view. Bitcoin’s plunge below $90,000 was driven in part by ripple effects from Japan’s bond market crisis and a subsequent $1 billion liquidation event following former President Trump’s policy reversals on Greenland and associated tariffs. Dawson pointed to the upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve as a pivotal variable, expressing optimism that markets will likely “see very favourable conditions as the Trump administration wants the economy to run hot.”
Whether the current negative profit cycle catalyzes a sustained downturn or merely a temporary reset now hinges on which analytical lens proves more accurate. One narrative, grounded in on-chain data from CryptoQuant, sees worrying echoes of past bear markets. The other, championed by analysts like Sean Dawson of Derive, views the same data as evidence of market maturation and argues that macroeconomic forces—from the Federal Reserve to U.S. debt and foreign policy—will dictate Bitcoin’s path forward.
📎 Related coverage from: decrypt.co
