Bitcoin’s 5.7% Jump: Fake Breakout or Real Rally?

Tuesday’s 5.7% surge brought Bitcoin to a high above $93,000 before it swiftly retreated, a pattern that has analysts from firms like Bitunix on high alert. In a note shared with Decrypt, Bitunix analysts described the structure as resembling a potential ‘fake breakout,’ a technical pattern where an asset breaches a resistance level only to fall back quickly, often trapping bullish traders. The short-term setup has now shifted into what they term a ‘choppy pullback,’ with the key test being whether Bitcoin can find stability within the $90,000 to $91,000 support zone.

According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin was trading at $92,772 at the time of the original report, a modest 0.7% gain over the prior day. Despite the recent jump, the price remains approximately 14% lower than its early November levels, though it is roughly even with its price from a year ago. Supporting the day’s volatile activity, trading volume climbed 16% to $128 billion, as tracked by the analytics platform Coinglass, indicating heightened investor participation during the move.

The price action spurred a notable, though uneven, response in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Data from U.K. asset manager Farside Investors shows a net inflow of $58.5 million across all funds on Tuesday, a sharp rebound from the mere $8.5 million recorded on Monday. This renewed optimism, however, masked a stark divergence beneath the surface.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the clear leader, attracting $120 million in new capital. This substantial inflow was largely offset, however, by a significant $90.9 million net outflow from the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB). This contrast highlights how investor sentiment and capital allocation within the crypto ETF landscape can be fragmented, even on days of broad market gains.

Beyond technical charts and ETF flows, the dominant narrative for financial markets remains the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. As noted by analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital, markets may appear calm but are bracing for the next catalyst. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders now assign an 89% probability to a rate cut at the December meeting, a significant increase from the 66.8% odds priced in just a month ago.

This aggressive market pricing faces a unique complication: the Federal Reserve is deliberating without the most recent inflation or employment data. Although the U.S. government shutdown ended on November 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is still working through a backlog of unprocessed data, which will not be published before the Fed’s meeting next week. This creates an unusual environment of high conviction among traders based on incomplete official economic indicators.

Looking further ahead, QCP analysts point to additional macroeconomic catalysts, including potential leadership changes at the central bank. Betting markets now assign roughly an 85% probability that Kevin Hassett will become the next Fed Chair, a decision former President Donald Trump is expected to formalize early next year. With current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026 and other changes—such as Stephen Miran’s departure in January after filling a seat vacated by Adriana Kugler—the analysts warn that a ‘reshaped leadership might influence the Fed’s reaction function’ during a fragile moment for monetary policy.