Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Now Driven by Politics, Not Halving

The conventional wisdom surrounding Bitcoin’s price movements has long centered on its halving mechanism—the programmed reduction in new supply that occurs approximately every four years. However, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, presents a compelling counter-narrative. Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that the idea of the four-year cycle being ‘broken’ misses the point. In his view, the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by Bitcoin’s internal supply mechanics. Instead, it has evolved to be increasingly shaped by external forces: US election timelines, central bank policy, and the flow of capital into risk assets.

This shift represents a significant maturation in Bitcoin’s market narrative. Thielen’s analysis suggests that as Bitcoin has grown from a niche digital asset to a globally recognized financial instrument, its price drivers have expanded beyond its own protocol rules. The cycle persists as a temporal pattern, but the catalysts within that timeframe have transformed. This evolution indicates Bitcoin’s deepening sensitivity to the same macroeconomic and political factors that influence traditional markets, moving its analysis from a purely cryptographic framework to a broader financial one.

Thielen’s thesis is grounded in a clear historical pattern. He pointed to Bitcoin’s major market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter of their respective years. This consistent timing, he contends, aligns more closely with the rhythm of US presidential election cycles and the political uncertainty they generate than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings. The halving events themselves have shifted throughout the calendar over the years, occurring in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020, yet the subsequent market tops have consistently clustered in late-year periods following election-related events.

The implication is that political cycles in the United States—the world’s largest economy and a central hub for cryptocurrency trading and regulation—now exert a powerful influence on market sentiment and capital allocation. Election years bring policy uncertainty, fiscal debates, and potential regulatory shifts, all of which can drive volatility and speculative activity in risk assets like Bitcoin. Thielen’s observation reframes the four-year cycle from a supply-driven event to a demand-driven phenomenon, where political calendars create predictable windows of heightened market activity and sentiment shifts.

Beyond politics, Thielen identifies central bank policy and liquidity conditions as critical drivers of the modern Bitcoin cycle. The flow of capital into risk assets is heavily influenced by monetary policy set by institutions like the US Federal Reserve. Periods of loose monetary policy, characterized by low interest rates and quantitative easing, have historically correlated with strong performance in speculative assets, including Bitcoin. This liquidity often finds its way into the cryptocurrency markets, amplifying price movements within the established four-year window.

This connection to global liquidity underscores Bitcoin’s role as a barometer for risk appetite. The cycle’s persistence, now tied to these external financial forces, suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly traded as a macro asset. Investors are not just reacting to a reduction in new Bitcoin supply every four years; they are positioning themselves within a four-year cycle of political change and monetary policy shifts. The convergence of these factors—elections creating uncertainty and central banks influencing the cost of capital—creates a potent mix that can drive the parabolic rallies historically seen in the fourth year of the cycle.

In conclusion, Markus Thielen’s analysis from 10x Research offers a nuanced update to a foundational Bitcoin thesis. The four-year cycle is not broken; it has been repurposed. The primary engine is no longer the halving’s supply shock but the combined force of political calendars and global liquidity cycles. For market participants, this means understanding Bitcoin’s price action requires looking beyond the blockchain to the halls of central banks and the campaign trails of presidential elections. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its rhythms are becoming less crypto-native and more synchronized with the broader tides of finance and geopolitics.