Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle May Be Broken, Says PlanB

PlanB, the analyst behind Bitcoin’s influential stock-to-flow model, has issued a stark warning to traders who rely on the familiar four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings. In recent commentary, he cautioned that using just three past cycles to predict future price tops represents significant statistical risk. The analyst specifically challenged the assumption that Bitcoin’s peak must arrive exactly 18 months after the last halving in October, arguing that this pattern lacks sufficient historical evidence to be considered reliable.

The stock-to-flow creator directly addressed market participants who believe $126,000 marked this cycle’s peak and expect Bitcoin to slide below $100,000 next year. PlanB called this view “a big misunderstanding,” emphasizing that three cycles simply don’t form a strong statistical pattern. His analysis suggests the next peak could materialize in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, indicating much wider timing variability than traditional cycle theory would suggest.

This shift in perspective represents a significant departure from conventional Bitcoin market analysis, where the four-year halving cycle has long served as a cornerstone for price predictions. PlanB’s comments suggest traders may need to reconsider their timing models and risk management strategies in light of this statistical uncertainty.

According to market experts cited in the analysis, the current Bitcoin cycle shows notable differences in liquidity composition compared to previous bull runs. The last cycle’s peak was reportedly driven largely by short-term liquidity in paper derivative markets, creating explosive but potentially unsustainable price movements. This cycle, however, appears to feature less paper-driven liquidity while longer-term spot buying has maintained relative strength.

This structural shift could fundamentally alter the sources of future price movements in Bitcoin markets. With reduced influence from derivative markets, the next major price move may originate from different market participants and capital flows than in previous cycles. The emphasis on spot buying suggests more substantial, potentially more stable capital entering the Bitcoin ecosystem, though the ultimate impact on price volatility remains uncertain.

The changing liquidity dynamics coincide with PlanB’s observation that he has not yet seen a clear “phase transition” for Bitcoin in this cycle. This absence suggests either that the major institutional-driven price jump is still ahead, or that the market is transitioning toward a steadier price regime shaped by funds, mandates, and systematic rebalancing. Both scenarios, according to the analyst, could prove positive for Bitcoin over time as they imply different forms of lasting demand.

Recent Bitcoin price action has kept traders on edge, with the cryptocurrency falling below $103,000 last week before finding support near $108,000. These movements sparked concerns that a bear market might have already begun, demonstrating how quickly market sentiment can shift in response to price fluctuations. Reports indicate that traders were hoping for price bounces to exit positions at favorable levels, reflecting the nervous undercurrent in current market conditions.

The volatility continued this week with Bitcoin dropping more than 3% during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, slipping to approximately $107,000 before stabilizing. This pattern of sharp declines followed by partial recoveries has characterized recent trading, creating an environment where sentiment can flip rapidly even during price recoveries. The absence of sustained upward momentum has left market participants searching for clearer directional signals.

According to market observers, crypto markets still require stronger fundamentals or sustained capital flows to calm investor nerves and push prices higher for extended periods. The current environment of short-term volatility and rapidly shifting sentiment highlights the market’s ongoing uncertainty about Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory, even as long-term proponents like PlanB maintain focus on average price levels rather than single highs or lows.