Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle May Be Breaking, Analysts Warn

Crypto analyst Scott Melker has identified that Bitcoin is currently about 1,080 days removed from its last major cycle low, placing the asset at a statistically significant deviation from historical patterns. Previous market peaks have consistently occurred between 1,060 and 1,070 days after cycle lows, making the current timeframe particularly noteworthy. This deviation suggests that Bitcoin may be breaking from its established four-year cycle pattern that has characterized much of its history.

Adding to the complexity, Melker noted that the traditional halving-based timeline would suggest a market top between April and October 2025, given that the most recent halving occurred in April 2024. Historically, Bitcoin has peaked 12 to 18 months after halving events. However, Melker observed that the current market environment lacks the typical “mania phase” that has characterized previous cycle peaks, with altcoins yet to experience their customary surge and investor sentiment remaining surprisingly weak.

According to Melker’s analysis, many traders have either sold their positions early or remained on the sidelines, creating an unusual market dynamic. He suggested that investors’ attempts to front-run the four-year cycle may have fundamentally altered its predictability, potentially “breaking” the established pattern that has guided Bitcoin investment strategies for years.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently echoed similar concerns about Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle, arguing that it’s becoming obsolete in the current market environment. Hayes dismissed the rigid application of historical cycle patterns, asserting that traders often overlook the real drivers of Bitcoin’s price movements. He emphasized that previous Bitcoin peaks were more closely tied to tightening in dollar and yuan credit conditions than to halving schedules.

Hayes explained that the current bull market could extend far longer than historical patterns would suggest, primarily due to loose global monetary policy. He pointed to liquidity conditions and credit trends in both the US and China as more relevant factors than the mechanical application of halving-based timelines. This perspective suggests that today’s market environment is fundamentally different from previous cycles, with institutional participation and macroeconomic factors playing an increasingly important role.

Melker expanded on this theme, suggesting that once the current early selling pressure subsides, Bitcoin could begin following a more mature, liquidity-driven trajectory that might extend into 2026. He noted that whether this means Bitcoin is entering a new era of institutional flows and real-world adoption, or simply rewriting its established pattern, makes the current moment particularly fascinating for market observers.

PlanB, the creator of Bitcoin’s well-known stock-to-flow model, has joined the chorus of analysts questioning the reliability of the four-year cycle. He responded to bearish views that $126,000 marked the market top and that 2026 will usher in a bear phase by calling such assumptions a “big misunderstanding.” PlanB argued that just three completed cycles are insufficient to establish a dependable pattern, highlighting the statistical limitations of drawing firm conclusions from such limited historical data.

The analyst stressed that it is “absolutely not guaranteed” for Bitcoin to peak 18 months after a halving, which would imply October 2025 based on the most recent April 2024 event. Instead, PlanB suggested that the next market top could just as easily occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, representing a significant departure from traditional cycle expectations. This expanded timeframe reflects the growing uncertainty about whether historical patterns will continue to hold in an increasingly institutional market.

PlanB indicated that he is now more focused on Bitcoin’s average price levels rather than short-term peaks and troughs, suggesting a shift in analytical approach. According to his assessment, the market has yet to undergo a “fundamental phase transition,” which could either lead to a major rally or a more stable, institutionally influenced regime. Both outcomes, he noted, should be considered bullish for Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, regardless of how the traditional cycle plays out.