Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Driven by Human Emotion: Exec

During an exclusive interview at Token2049 in Singapore, Saad Ahmed, the head of Asia-Pacific for cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, provided a compelling psychological framework for understanding Bitcoin’s notorious four-year cycle. Contrary to purely technical explanations that focus on Bitcoin’s halving events or algorithmic supply constraints, Ahmed positioned human emotion as the primary catalyst. “It ultimately stems from people get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium,” Ahmed explained to Cointelegraph, describing a pattern of collective market psychology that transcends specific technical triggers.

This emotional framework explains why the four-year cycle has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite evolving market conditions, regulatory changes, and increasing institutional participation. According to Ahmed’s analysis, the cycle represents a fundamental rhythm of human behavior in speculative markets—a pattern of euphoric expansion followed by corrective contraction that has repeated across various asset classes throughout financial history. What makes Bitcoin particularly susceptible to this pattern, however, is its relative youth as an asset class, its high volatility characteristics, and the still-significant proportion of retail investors whose decisions are often emotionally driven.

While firmly asserting the cycle’s continued relevance, Ahmed carefully distinguished between the concept’s fundamental drivers and its specific historical manifestations. “I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” he stated, emphasizing the word “form” to acknowledge potential variations from past patterns. This nuanced position recognizes that while the emotional underpinnings remain constant, their expression in price action may evolve as Bitcoin’s market structure matures.

The Gemini executive’s comments come at a time when some market observers have questioned whether Bitcoin’s established cycles remain applicable given the cryptocurrency’s growing mainstream adoption and changing investor base. Ahmed’s perspective suggests that these structural changes may modify the amplitude, duration, or precise timing of cycles rather than eliminating them entirely. The core mechanism—where excessive optimism leads to overextension, necessitating a correction back to sustainable levels—appears deeply embedded in how market participants interact with Bitcoin regardless of their level of sophistication or institutional backing.

For investors and traders navigating Bitcoin’s volatile landscape, Ahmed’s emotional framework offers practical insights beyond mere technical analysis. Understanding that market cycles are driven by psychological factors rather than predetermined technical events encourages a more nuanced approach to risk management. The recognition that “people get really excited and overextend themselves” serves as a warning against following herd mentality during market peaks, while the inevitable correction phase represents potential opportunity rather than catastrophe.

Ahmed’s analysis, delivered at one of Asia’s premier cryptocurrency conferences in Singapore, reinforces the importance of emotional discipline in cryptocurrency investing. If the four-year cycle indeed stems from collective human psychology, then successful navigation of Bitcoin’s markets requires not just technical expertise but also self-awareness about one’s own emotional responses to price movements. The equilibrium that Ahmed describes emerging after corrections represents not just a technical support level but a psychological recalibration where market participants find a sustainable balance between fear and greed.