Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Declared Dead by Analyst

For years, the crypto market operated on a predictable rhythm: the Bitcoin halving event, occurring roughly every four years, would reduce the new supply of BTC, triggering a subsequent price surge that lifted the entire digital asset ecosystem. This pattern became a cornerstone of market analysis. However, analyst @theunipcs, who commands an audience of over 227,000 followers on X, has now pronounced this cycle dead. He argues that the historical mechanism no longer determines the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) or major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP.

The evidence lies in the market’s prolonged stagnation. According to the analyst, the market has been stuck in a phase of consolidation and accumulation, showing little of the explosive activity historically expected post-halving. Bitcoin’s price, along with leading altcoins, has remained depressed for months, trading roughly 30% or more below their all-time highs. This period of weakness was starkly illustrated earlier this month when BTC crashed below $85,000, a dramatic fall from its peak above $126,000 in the first week of October. Major altcoins followed a similar trajectory of explosive surges followed by steep plunges to new lows.

This crypto downturn stands in stark contrast to the performance of other major asset classes, which continue to climb. Unipcs notes that silver has been hitting record levels almost daily, while gold continues to ascend to new peaks. Furthermore, major U.S. stock indexes, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX), are consistently achieving fresh highs. This divergence highlights crypto’s current underperformance and isolation from broader market bullishness.

The sentiment within the crypto sphere reflects this struggle. Technical indicators like the Fear & Greed Index indicate that investor sentiment remains deeply negative, while analyst insights point to a persistently bearish market structure. The simultaneous strength in traditional markets and weakness in crypto underscores the analyst’s core argument: the old, insular four-year cycle driven solely by Bitcoin’s internal supply mechanics has been broken by external forces.

So, what has usurped the halving cycle’s influence? Unipcs’s analysis points to a confluence of new, powerful factors that have fundamentally altered market dynamics. The introduction and massive inflows into U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a new, institutional-driven demand channel that operates independently of the halving schedule. Concurrently, global monetary policy, macroeconomic factors, and the complex flow of liquidity between asset classes now play a more decisive role.

Dramatic liquidation events have also reshaped the market’s risk profile. These elements combine to create a more complex and integrated financial environment where crypto is no longer an isolated asset class following its own internal clock. The market is now subject to the same broad forces—interest rates, inflation, and institutional investment patterns—that govern traditional assets like the S&P 500, gold, and silver.

Despite declaring the old cycle dead and acknowledging the prolonged slump, Unipcs’s outlook is not purely pessimistic. He suggests this could mark the beginning of a new era for crypto. The analyst believes the ongoing accumulation trend, where prices are suppressed but underlying buying may be occurring, could end soon.

This transition, he argues, could trigger an aggressive rally across the crypto market. Once the dormant market awakens, Bitcoin and major altcoins could surge explosively to new all-time highs. While the precise timing of this potential breakout remains uncertain, the analyst expresses confidence in the market’s latent potential for a decisive recovery. His conclusion is a bold prediction: the crypto market will eventually catch up to and potentially outperform all other asset classes, but within a new framework divorced from its historical four-year rhythm.