Bitcoin Whales Face $3.75B Losses as Price Struggles at $70K

Recent on-chain data, highlighted by top analyst Maartunn, reveals a stark picture of distress among Bitcoin’s largest holders. Between February 3 and February 6, these whales realized staggering losses as they exited positions: approximately $944 million on Feb. 3, $431 million on Feb. 4, a massive $1.46 billion on Feb. 5, and $915 million on Feb. 6. This four-day total of nearly $3.75 billion in realized losses points to a concentrated wave of capitulation. According to the analysis, many of these large investors entered the market near the $96,000 region, only to be caught in the subsequent sharp reversal. Selling at such a significant loss typically indicates weakened conviction or urgent risk management, a dynamic that contributes directly to the heightened volatility and repeated failures to hold the $70,000 level.

This behavior is characteristic of late-cycle entrants facing downside pressure. Maartunn’s figures suggest the estimated cost basis for this newest cohort of large holders is now around $90,000, meaning a substantial portion of recent accumulation occurred at that elevated level. Their decision to sell at a loss, therefore, is not just a signal of panic but a fundamental shift in market structure. When whales capitulate, it often marks a transition from a distribution phase—where early investors sell to latecomers—to a redistribution phase, where assets move from weaker, over-leveraged hands to buyers with stronger conviction at lower prices.

The current Bitcoin price action reflects a market dominated by this distribution pressure, not a foundation for sustained recovery. Technically, BTC is trading clearly below all major moving averages, which are themselves trending downward. This configuration signals a mature corrective phase rather than a temporary pullback. The repeated inability to reclaim these averages or consolidate above the $90,000–$100,000 region underscores weak spot demand and continued caution, particularly among institutional participants. Each push above $70,000 has been met with renewed selling pressure, reinforcing the view that the market is navigating a corrective phase.

The process of redistribution, while painful in the short term, can lay the groundwork for future stability. As Maartunn’s analysis implies, the coins sold at a loss do not vanish; they are transferred to new buyers willing to absorb supply at lower prices. This shift in ownership structure and cost basis can eventually help establish a firmer floor. However, in the near term, it creates a significant overhead resistance zone around the $90,000 mark—the recent whales’ cost basis—which will likely hinder any swift recovery attempts. The market structure currently reflects this redistribution, keeping downside risks structurally elevated until a new equilibrium is found.

With distribution pressure ongoing, the focus shifts to critical support levels. The $60,000–$65,000 region is emerging as a vital cluster for Bitcoin’s price. A sustained hold above this range could stabilize fragile market sentiment and allow for a period of needed consolidation. The latest decline into this zone was accompanied by a sharp expansion in trading volume, typically associated with forced liquidations and panic exits, indicating it is being tested seriously. Failure to maintain this support, however, would likely expose deeper liquidity pockets below, potentially accelerating volatility in a negative direction.

In the short term, price action appears reactive rather than directional. Until trading volume stabilizes and Bitcoin convincingly reclaims key trend indicators like its major moving averages, any rallies are likely to remain corrective bounces within a broader downtrend. The combination of whale capitulation, a high-overhead resistance zone near $90,000, and the test of critical support at $60,000-$65,000 paints a picture of a market in flux. The path to stabilization depends on whether the ongoing redistribution from weak to strong hands concludes before the $60,000 support gives way, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major trend.