Bitcoin Whale Data Distorted by Exchange Consolidation, Not Buying

Claims circulating on social media that Bitcoin whales are massively reaccumulating the cryptocurrency are exaggerated, according to a detailed analysis of onchain data by analytics firm CryptoQuant. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explains that the numbers often cited can be significantly distorted by internal exchange activity rather than genuine market buying. Large transfers tied to exchanges can create the appearance that a single entity is piling into Bitcoin, when in reality the action often represents routine internal bookkeeping or operational adjustments.

This distortion is critical for accurate market interpretation. Exchange firms frequently consolidate funds from numerous small customer accounts into fewer large wallets for operational efficiency or compliance reasons. When this occurs, onchain tracking tools may incorrectly classify these consolidated exchange addresses as individual “whales,” artificially inflating the apparent number of very large holders and their perceived accumulation. “Most Bitcoin whale data out there has been ‘affected’ by exchanges consolidating a lot of their holdings into fewer addresses with larger balances,” stated Moreno in a social media post, adding that this is why whales appear to have accumulated many coins recently.

When these exchange-related shifts are filtered from the data, the reality becomes clearer. The balance held by true large holders—specifically addresses holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC—is still falling. This decline aligns with observed outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that the narrative of aggressive whale buying is not supported by the underlying, cleaned data.

While the whale accumulation story appears overblown, reports indicate a meaningful behavioral shift in another key cohort. According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at investment firm VanEck, long-term Bitcoin holders have become net accumulators over the past 30 days. This follows what was their most significant selling spree since 2019, marking a notable change in sentiment and action from this historically influential group.

This shift could reduce a major source of selling pressure in the market. While it does not guarantee an immediate price rally, it signifies that at least one key cohort has stopped adding to the sell side. Markets fundamentally react to the balance between buyers and sellers, and this move by long-term holders softens the argument that a single, persistent group is driving prices lower. Their return to accumulation, even if modest, provides a counterpoint to the declining balances seen in the 100-1,000 BTC wallet band.

Bitcoin’s price action reflects this complex interplay of flows. At the time of the analysis, the cryptocurrency was hovering around the $89,750 level during thin holiday trading, with a 24-hour volume near $52 billion. The token sat roughly 2.8% below a recent daily high of $90,250, carrying a market capitalization of about $1.75 trillion. Trading has seen sharp moves in both directions, but overall volume has been weak, indicating that these price swings lack the conviction and support needed for a definitive breakout or breakdown.

The landscape of Bitcoin ownership has fundamentally changed since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. These financial products now command a large share of on- and off-chain demand, which directly influences where Bitcoin is stored and how capital flows appear on onchain charts. The reported outflows from these ETFs have contributed to the lower balances observed in the 100–1,000 BTC band, even as long-term holders engage in quiet accumulation on the other side.

Taken together, the evidence points more toward market consolidation than the start of a new bull run or an impending major crash. The narrative is not one-sided: exaggerated claims of whale reaccumulation are countered by the verified buying interest from long-term holders. Future price direction will likely hinge on whether ETF flows return in size, providing a fresh source of institutional demand, and whether overall trading volume picks up sufficiently to confirm any sustained price move beyond the current $90,000 range.