Bitcoin Whale Bets $2B on Market Bottom, Targets $100K+

On November 24, Deribit reported a 20,000 BTC notional block trade valued at approximately $2 billion, representing one of the most significant institutional moves in recent Bitcoin history. The trade structure—a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for December 2025—reveals precise strategic thinking. By purchasing call options at $100,000 and $118,000 while simultaneously selling calls at $106,000 and $112,000, the investor created a targeted profit corridor rather than betting on explosive price movement beyond this range.

This sophisticated positioning suggests the trader believes Bitcoin will recover steadily into the six-figure valuation band without the chaotic volatility that marked the recent crash from $106,000 to approximately $79,500. According to Deribit’s analysis, “The signal is clear: a structured bullish view – expecting BTC to reach the 100–118k zone, not explode past it.” The trade effectively represents a conviction that the recent liquidation cascade marked a cycle-defining bottom that has cleared the runway for Bitcoin’s next major advance.

The scale of conviction behind this $2 billion bet becomes understandable when examining the market wreckage that preceded it. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin open interest has plummeted by roughly 1.3 million BTC over the last 30 days—the sharpest contraction of the entire cycle. The vast majority of this unwind occurred on Binance, marking a decisive end to the speculative fever that had previously driven aggregate open interest to record highs.

This scale of capitulation mirrors the depths of the 2022 bear market and indicates that Bitcoin’s recent price drop was primarily driven by mechanical liquidation cascades rather than fundamental decay. As traders holding long positions were swept from the board in a violent feedback loop, what began as a healthy correction transformed into a full-scale crash. Historical patterns suggest these “cleansing phases” often serve as bullish signals, as they force the closure of overly optimistic positions and flush out weak hands, building a more stable market foundation.

Beneath the surface of the derivatives flush, on-chain data reveals a distinct shift in ownership that supports the bottoming thesis. While retail investors holding less than 10 BTC have been net sellers over the last 60 days, sophisticated players are stepping in to absorb the distributed supply. CryptoQuant data shows that BTC cohorts holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, as well as those holding more than 10,000 BTC, have been steadily accumulating throughout the dip.

This divergence between fearful retail distribution and institutional accumulation typically signals market bottoms. Key stress metrics such as transfer volumes and realized capitalization change have subsided, a hallmark of late-cycle corrections. However, one headwind remains: the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort continues to distribute. For the recovery to transition into a confirmed reversal, this group must slow its selling—a shift the $2 billion options bet suggests the “smart money” believes is imminent.

The whale’s trade timing anticipates a favorable shift in the macroeconomic environment. With markets pricing in an 81% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, upcoming US PPI and PCE data releases could provide immediate liquidity support for risk assets. Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin told CryptoSlate that increased odds of a rate cut had helped push Bitcoin’s recent upward trend above $87,000, though he cautioned that optimism remains “tenuous” with the FOMC divided and no confirming data yet.

The call condor structure itself creates powerful market mechanics. The sheer size of the position generates massive dealer hedging flows. As Bitcoin prices move toward the $100,000 activation zone, dealers who sold the structure will be forced to hedge their exposure, creating what market participants describe as a “magnetic pull” toward the profit band. This technical factor, combined with improving macro conditions, could help propel Bitcoin toward the whale’s targeted valuation range by December 2025.