Bitcoin Whale Activity Hits 2025 High Amid Price Drop

Despite Bitcoin’s price dropping to approximately $91,700 and recording an 11.5% decline in just the past week, on-chain data reveals a remarkable surge in large-scale transactions. Analytics firm Santiment reported more than 102,900 Bitcoin transactions above $100,000 and over 29,000 transactions exceeding $1 million this week alone, making it a strong candidate for the most active whale week of 2025. This substantial whale activity represents a significant divergence from the broader negative market sentiment, with flows shifting from dumping to accumulating patterns.

The scale of accumulation becomes even more striking when examining specific transactions. Trader Kyle Chassé highlighted a single purchase of 1,300 BTC, worth approximately $121 million, from custodian BitGo. This aligns with broader on-chain analysis from MorenoDV_, who noted that a specific cohort of long-term, ‘price-insensitive’ holders has absorbed 186,000 BTC since October 6. This represents the largest accumulation spike in recent cycles, yet it has occurred alongside declining prices rather than triggering the typical rally that such substantial buying would normally produce.

The current market dynamic presents a rare anomaly that has stumped market observers. Since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of around $126,000 on October 6, the cryptocurrency has fallen approximately 28%, with the most recent drop bringing it to test critical support levels. Typically, such aggressive accumulation by well-funded investors would catalyze price recovery, but the current cycle has seen prices move south despite the substantial buying pressure.

This unusual pattern suggests that well-funded investors are using the recent price drops as a buying opportunity, potentially positioning for a future recovery. The data indicates a fundamental shift in market dynamics, where long-term holders appear to be absorbing supply at an unprecedented rate while short-term sentiment remains overwhelmingly negative. The absorption of 186,000 BTC since October 6 represents one of the most significant accumulation phases in Bitcoin’s recent history, yet it has failed to stem the price decline.

The conflicting signals have created a sharp division among market analysts regarding Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Some analysts interpret the aggressive accumulation as laying the foundation for a strong rally once retail capitulation is complete and available supply dries up. They argue that the substantial whale activity represents smart money positioning for the next upward move, suggesting that current price levels present a strategic buying opportunity.

However, other analysts warn that this could represent a ‘catching falling knives’ scenario, with the potential for further downside if key support levels break. Technical analyst EGRAG CRYPTO notes that Bitcoin is currently testing the 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on its monthly chart, a level that has historically separated bull markets from bear markets. Holding above this level would suggest the bull market structure remains intact, while a breakdown could signal more significant declines ahead.

Commentators like Axel Adler Jr. have highlighted additional concerning factors, including bearish pressure in the futures market and a market sentiment index reading of -89, indicating extreme fear among market participants. These conditions create maximum stress and make the possibility of a swift recovery difficult without a positive catalyst. Some analysis suggests the current pattern mirrors a shakeout seen in Q1 2025, potentially putting the market in the final stages of a downturn before a reversal takes shape.