Bitcoin Volatility Spikes as Social Sentiment Stays Bearish

The recent price action for Bitcoin has been a masterclass in volatility. After plunging to $60,000 last week, BTC managed a partial recovery, only to slip back below $67,000, triggering a cascade of liquidations. Market watcher Ash Crypto reported that this move alone liquidated roughly $127 million in leveraged long positions within a mere four-hour window. At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed BTC trading around $66,700, marking a 3% decline over 24 hours and a steep 13% drop on the week. More broadly, the flagship cryptocurrency is down over 27% in the past 30 days and remains a staggering 47% below its all-time high set in October 2025.

Beneath these dramatic price swings lies a deeply bearish social sentiment, as tracked by analytics firm Santiment. The data shows a persistently high ratio of bearish to bullish social media posts, even after the rebound from the $60,000 dip. This indicates that the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) that gripped the market during the sell-off has not dissipated with the price recovery. Santiment’s analysis highlights a critical divergence: retail traders appear hesitant to buy at current levels, while larger holders—often referred to as ‘whales’—are facing less resistance and are actively accumulating during these periods of widespread fear. The firm notes that historically, market rebounds have often followed such spikes in negative sentiment, though it cautiously stops short of declaring a definitive bottom.

The instability is quantifiable. Data cited by Arab Chain analysts from Binance reveals that Bitcoin’s seven-day annualized volatility has surged to approximately 1.51, marking its highest reading since 2022. This spike underscores the intense, short-term turbulence rattling the market. However, the 30-day and 90-day volatility measures remain lower at 0.81 and 0.56, respectively, suggesting the recent chaos has not yet crystallized into a sustained, high-volatility regime. This compression in longer-term metrics may be a precursor to a significant move.

Analysts point to the average true range (ATR) as a percentage, which is sitting near 0.075. Historically, this level represents a compressed state that often precedes a larger directional breakout. The current trading ranges support this thesis. The 24-hour range has been between $66,600 and $69,900, while the weekly price action has spanned from about $62,800 to $76,500. This wide, unstable band illustrates a market searching for conviction, trapped in what commentator Doctor Profit describes as a wide consolidation range between $57,000 and $87,000.

The technical picture is fueling comparisons to previous downturns. Bitcoin has now closed three consecutive weeks below its 100-week moving average, a pattern ominously reminiscent of behavior seen in prior bear markets. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju reinforced this cautious outlook on February 9, stating plainly that “Bitcoin is not pumpable right now,” citing persistent selling pressure that caps any rally attempts.

Macroeconomic factors are compounding the pressure. Research from XWIN Research Japan notes that weaker U.S. retail sales and easing wage growth signal a slowing consumption trend, which could weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin in the near term. Furthermore, the firm highlighted a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Gap since late 2025. This metric, which compares the price on U.S.-based exchange Coinbase to global averages, suggests weak spot demand from U.S. investors relative to derivatives-driven activity elsewhere, indicating a lack of foundational buying support from a key market.

Amid the gloom, a minority of voices advocate for a longer-term perspective. Maksym Sakharov of WeFi argues that Bitcoin sentiment will eventually strengthen, but for a fundamentally different reason than in past cycles. “I believe Bitcoin sentiment will turn even stronger despite the falling prices, but this time it won’t be only about price or speculation, but also about real adoption,” Sakharov said. This view posits that the next bull phase may be driven by utility and integration rather than mere speculative fervor.

In summary, Bitcoin is ensnared in a narrow zone defined by technical support near $60,000 and a ceiling of fear-driven pessimism. The elevated volatility, bearish social sentiment, and concerning technical patterns have created a high-stakes environment. Traders and analysts are now closely watching to see whether this period of compressed energy and extreme FUD resolves with a decisive breakout to the upside or culminates in another leg lower, potentially testing the lower bounds of the identified consolidation range. The coming weeks will determine if the current fear represents a final capitulation before a rebound or merely a pause in a broader downtrend.